Assessments

Chinese flags and American flags are displayed at a business in Beijing. 

Washington and Beijing’s renewed feud over the city's autonomy raises the risk for more tariff hikes and other trade salvos that soon render their “phase one” deal functionally dead.

Amid Rising Hong Kong Tensions, the U.S.-China Trade Deal Hangs by a Thread

Highlights

United States

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Environment, Science & Technology

Economics

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

China in Transition

Rising bilateral tensions stemming from Beijing's proposed national security legislation for Hong Kong are increasing the risk that the "phase one" trade deal between the United States and China will collapse before the end of 2020. The deal itself may still officially exist, but tit-for-tat escalation on tariffs and trade measures will render it functionally dead. Further retaliation by the United States over the Hong Kong legislation also risks triggering Chinese countermeasures beyond trade policy.

ASSESSMENTS

Amid Rising Hong Kong Tensions, the U.S.-China Trade Deal Hangs by a Thread

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