Forecasts

The quarter will also feature impactful elections, including presidential and general elections in Turkey that could trigger a constitutional crisis; regional elections in Spain that could see the nationalist right performing strongly; legislative elections in India that will delay the implementation of controversial economic reforms; and contentious elections to appoint the members of a council that will draft Chile's next constitution. Finally, political and security volatility will be high in key emerging economies such as Brazil, where political polarization will slow the new government's policy agenda; Nigeria, where the persistent risk of social unrest will complicate the new president's push to reform the economy; and Pakistan, where political volatility and a persistent economic crisis will prolong policy uncertainty and keep a high risk of social unrest.

U.S.-China tensions, a push by the Global South to build a parallel world order, new governments implementing controversial reforms and elections triggering social unrest will shape the fourth quarter.

A lingering energy crisis and monetary tightening will negatively impact economic activity across the world in the fourth quarter, leading to heightened social, political and economic risk.

As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, the combination of limited energy supplies, high inflation and monetary tightening will negatively impact economic growth in the Global North and increase the risk of financial, political and food crises in the Global South. Against this backdrop, the world’s largest economies (most notably the U.S., China and the EU) will seek to shield themselves at a time of rising global uncertainty, leading to increased protectionism and limiting the room for multilateral cooperation on issues ranging from multilateral institutions to climate change.

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Decade Forecast for Geo-Focus role teaser body.

The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world.