Quarterly

The quarter will also feature impactful elections, including presidential and general elections in Turkey that could trigger a constitutional crisis; regional elections in Spain that could see the nationalist right performing strongly; legislative elections in India that will delay the implementation of controversial economic reforms; and contentious elections to appoint the members of a council that will draft Chile's next constitution. Finally, political and security volatility will be high in key emerging economies such as Brazil, where political polarization will slow the new government's policy agenda; Nigeria, where the persistent risk of social unrest will complicate the new president's push to reform the economy; and Pakistan, where political volatility and a persistent economic crisis will prolong policy uncertainty and keep a high risk of social unrest.

U.S.-China tensions, a push by the Global South to build a parallel world order, new governments implementing controversial reforms and elections triggering social unrest will shape the fourth quarter.

A lingering energy crisis and monetary tightening will negatively impact economic activity across the world in the fourth quarter, leading to heightened social, political and economic risk.