Quarterly

Forecasts

The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast Stag

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast

U.S.-China tensions, a push by the Global South to build a parallel world order, new governments implementing controversial reforms and elections triggering social unrest will shape the fourth quarter.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Tensions between China, Russia and the West will shape a quarter marked by wars, trade disputes and consequential elections.

2024 Third-Quarter Forecast

During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.

2024 Second-Quarter Forecast

During the final quarter of 2023, the world will feel the impact of a global economy in transition as some of its pillars face headwinds and the war in Ukraine lingers.

2023 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast

Low economic growth, pervasive financial risks, the stalemate in Ukraine and technological competition between the world’s largest economies will drive geopolitical risk during the third quarter.

2023 Third-Quarter Forecast

Geopolitical tensions will remain high as the war in Ukraine continues and meager economic activity continues to raise questions about the future of the global economy.


2023 Second-Quarter Forecast

A lingering energy crisis and monetary tightening will negatively impact economic activity across the world in the fourth quarter, leading to heightened social, political and economic risk.

2022 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

High inflation, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical uncertainty will create significant political, economic, social and security risks worldwide during the third quarter.

2022 Third-Quarter Forecast

The war in Ukraine, energy and food inflation and the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic will create political, economic, security and social risk around the world during the second quarter. 


Quarterly

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