ASSESSMENTS

Anticipating Global Economic Risks

Mar 9, 2020 | 11:00 GMT

A close-up shot of board on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 03, 2020. The board shows mostly negative losses in red, as stocks on Wall Street fell once again amid growing concerns over the coronavirus outbreak.

A board on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 03, 2020. Following a strong market surge, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted once again amid growing concerns over the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

(Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Highlights

Trade spats between the United States and other countries, notably China and those in Europe, have raised fears of a slowdown in economic activity, or worse.
Central banks are now much more involved in regulating economies than they were before the global financial crisis, but are frequently under increased scrutiny and political pressure.
Central bankers in Europe, the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan have all expressed concern about what they see as their lack of room to maneuver.
Given the interconnectedness of markets, changes in one market can often have an outsized impact in other markets, particularly those with high sovereign debt risk or weak currencies.

Forecasters and pundits are growing more confident that the global economy will pick up steam in 2020, but some still worry that there could be at least a minor recession in 2020-21, according to RANE experts Ian Littlewood, an economist and financial analyst, and retired senior CIA economist Ginny Ehelebe. Through the use of a combination of both traditional and innovative tools, the United States and the United Kingdom have now managed to go a full decade without a recession -- an unusually long period of economic growth according to most economists. RANE examines what is going on and what global organizations should think about to mitigate economic risks. Stratfor’s geopolitical content and analysis will soon be available through RANE’s platform, where members receive exclusive access to a global marketplace of credentialed risk experts and service providers, proprietary community-driven risk intelligence, and a range of support services and risk management programs. For...

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