COLUMNS

Applying Long War Theory to Insurgencies

undefined and VP of Tactical Analysis
Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor

Aug 21, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

Jean-Louis Messonier's painting shows Napoleon Bonaparte heading a weary party during the defense of France.

Jean-Louis Messonier's painting shows Napoleon Bonaparte heading a weary party during the defense of France. Insurgent groups seek to defeat stronger opponents by wearing them down.

(Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • In contrast to conventional Western military strategists, insurgent commanders seek to prolong battles to ultimately wear down stronger opponents.
  • There are strong parallels between what the Islamic State is currently experiencing and the situation it faced when it was a largely guerrilla movement in 2010.
  • The Taliban might make overtures regarding negotiations, but they are unlikely to truly pursue talks because they believe they can outlast the Americans in Afghanistan.

In each of Nigeria, Afghanistan and the Levant, a seemingly defeated force has continued to fight after suffering considerable losses on the battlefield and ceding most, if not all, of its former territory. But far from compelling such groups to abandon the fight, the defeats represent only temporary reverses, for all are pursuing a long war strategy in which setbacks can ultimately be overcome with patience, persistence and fortitude....

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