ASSESSMENTS

Coronavirus Continues to Spread, But It Appears Less Lethal

undefined and Stratfor Global Security Analyst at RANE
Ben West
Stratfor Global Security Analyst at RANE, Stratfor

Feb 5, 2020 | 19:02 GMT

An employee cleans a door at the entrance of the Grand Lisboa Hotel in Macau on Feb. 5, 2020.

An employee cleans a door at the entrance of the Grand Lisboa Hotel in Macau on Feb. 5, 2020.

(ANTHONY KWAN/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The likelihood of a quick resolution to the coronavirus outbreak is rapidly decreasing.
  • The death rate has fallen, and the number of recovered patients has passed the number of fatalities.
  • A major outbreak in a country with limited medical resources could compound the damage already being caused by the virus.

On Jan. 29, Threat Lens laid out three scenarios for how the outbreak could be resolved, The Global Impact of the Wuhan Coronavirus: 3 Scenarios. At this point, the first scenario, which saw a timely response curbing the impact of the virus, appears to be increasingly unlikely. However, the third scenario, which saw a global pandemic with a low death rate, appears to be playing out. The public health threat is likely to ebb by the end of February, but the disruptions associated with travel restrictions and extended business closures in China can be expected to continue into March and possibly April....

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