Election-Related Violence in Kenya Is Unlikely

Questions about the results of Kenya's March 4 presidential election are raising concerns about a repeat of the widespread violence that was seen after the last presidential election in 2007. The most recent results show Uhuru Kenyatta — the son of Kenya's founder, Jomo Kenyatta — leading Raila Odinga, the current prime minister, 55 percent to 40 percent. Odinga's vice presidential running mate, Kalonzo Musyoka, said March 7 that some voting results were "doctored" and that the vote count should be stopped. Complicating the election results are candidates' concerns about spoiled ballots (which could become disqualified ballots) and the reliability of electronic voting measures. The party has stopped short of calling for protests. Final results may not be released by the country's independent electoral commission until March 8 or later.

The threat of violence in Kenya is always there, but given international pressure, the presence of international observers — who have already deemed the vote relatively free and fair — and constitutional mechanisms introduced after the 2007 crisis, the risk of significant and widespread violence is greatly reduced.