COLUMNS

The Erasure of the Islamic State's Caliphate Won't Ensure Its Defeat

undefined and VP of Tactical Analysis
Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor

Mar 5, 2019 | 10:15 GMT

Iraqis demand investigations March 1, 2019, in Baghdad into the discovery of a mass grave near the Islamic State's last bastion in eastern Syria.

Iraqis demand investigations March 1, 2019, in Baghdad into the discovery of a mass grave near the Islamic State's last bastion in eastern Syria. The Islamic State core could re-emerge as a serious threat.

(AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The Islamic State core is losing the final sliver of its self-declared caliphate.
  • State sponsorship, sectarian violence and a power vacuum had allowed the Islamic State to flourish.
  • Unless these external factors are addressed, the Islamic State core could re-emerge as a serious threat, especially as the United States turns its attention elsewhere.

The U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces launched an operation March 1 backed by U.S. artillery and air support in an effort to defeat the remnant core fighters of the Islamic State in the last sliver of the militant group's self-declared "caliphate," the term it used to describe the territory in Syria and Iraq it conquered and governed under its austere interpretation of Sharia. With the destruction of the so-called caliphate imminent, many have begun to wonder if the jihadist group could ever recover. But this is the wrong question. Instead of asking whether the Islamic State core can recover, the proper question is whether the Islamic State core will be permitted to recover again. The difference between these two questions is subtle, but vitally important....

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