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Gauging an Emerging Jihadist Threat in Mozambique

undefined and VP of Tactical Analysis
Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor

Jun 19, 2018 | 09:45 GMT

A picture shows internally displaced people and residents unload a truck with goods of first necessity, food and blankets in Naunde, northern Mozambique on June 13, after fleeing the recent attacks.

Internally displaced people and residents unload a truck with goods of first necessity, food and blankets in Naunde, northern Mozambique on June 13, after fleeing the recent attacks. Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo has staged a number of recent attacks in northern Mozambique, but its capabilities remain limited.

(JOAQUIM NHAMIRRE/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo could pose an increased threat to energy companies, as well as aid and development organizations, that are active in northern Mozambique.
  • Effective security measures will likely suffice to protect energy installations in the area, but the group could pose a danger to softer targets such as NGOs and locals.
  • In spite of some well-publicized attacks in areas that are critical to Mozambique's economic development, Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo does not yet have the capacity to pose a threat to hard targets. The group also lacks support from any transnational jihadist organizations.

They've been around for some time, but it was only late last month that they started to grab more of the world's attention. On May 27, the Islamist militant group Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo attacked Monjane, a town in northern Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, beheading 10 people. But the group has been active for months, attacking police stations, silencing opponents, robbing banks, looting weapons and burning villages. And given that Cabo Delgado just happens to hold vast reserves of natural gas, the emergence of Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo doesn't just affect Mozambique but the global energy industry. One week after I wrote about the factors to consider when gauging the success of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations against a militant group, now is the perfect opportunity to assess how Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo stacks up against the measurement criteria....

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