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under Turkey's mediation. This shift came after a dispute between the two countries in January 2024, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland granting it maritime access, a move Somalia deemed violated its sovereignty. Since 2020, Houthi rebels have strengthened their ties with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, facilitating and enhancing their connections with al Shabaab. The Islamic State Somalia Province will likely continue to retreat amid intensified counterterrorism operations, harming its capabilities and resulting in fighters carrying out only limited retaliatory attacks. If its foreign fighters leave Somalia, the risk they will plot attacks elsewhere will rise, while setbacks in Puntland could force Islamic State fighters in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa to intensify attacks to gain supplies. Islamic State fighters are likely to continue seeking refuge amid intensified operations by Puntland forces, supported by the United States and United Arab Emirates, pressuring the group to retreat from key strongholds. As a result, the Islamic State will likely face operational constraints that prevent it from carrying out major retaliatory attacks. Still, it will be compelled to conduct some attacks to maintain its operational capacity and morale. Some of these attacks likely will prove deadly given the group's evolving tactics, such as the use of suicide drones, suicide bombings and infantry charges. If foreign fighters return to their home countries or flee to other countries in the region, this will heighten the risk in the short term that these fighters, many with combat experience in Somalia, could use their connections and knowledge to carry out attacks in their home countries and beyond. Moreover, the destabilization of the Islamic State in Puntland will likely hinder other Islamic State provinces' funding and administration, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, which may slow their operations. To mitigate this, the group's affiliates in regions such as