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How Do You Measure Success Against Jihadists?

undefined and VP of Tactical Analysis
Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor

Jun 12, 2018 | 08:00 GMT

A picture taken on April 29, 2018, shows Syrian army forces running for cover from sniper fire from Islamic State positions in Yarmuk, a Palestinian refugee camp on the edge of Damascus.

A picture taken on April 29, 2018, shows Syrian army forces running from sniper fire from Islamic State group positions in Yarmuk, a Palestinian refugee camp on the edge of the capital. There is no iron rule to measuring success in the battle against jihadists, but some factors can indicate whether counterterrorism efforts are working.

(LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Measuring success against a militant organization requires understanding the group's objectives and how far it has progressed toward achieving them, as well as the types of warfare it is capable of waging.
  • Instead of gauging a group's strength through the number of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to examine the quality of the assaults and determine how they fit into the group's other operations.
  • Defeating a group requires more than victory on the physical battlefield; it also needs progress in the much more difficult ideological realm.

How do you actually measure success against jihadist groups? As operations the world over have shown, simply destroying a high number of Toyota Hiluxes driven by militants isn't necessarily the defining mark of success in the "war on terrorism," and a tally of terrorist attacks doesn’t necessarily signal failure. As it turns out, there's more to assessing a jihadist group's strength than straight numbers....

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