ASSESSMENTS

How One Region's Gains Are Another's Tragedy

Nov 2, 2017 | 21:01 GMT

A Home Depot pickup truck that was used to plow into bicyclists on Oct. 31 sits wrecked in New York City. The attack was conducted by an Uzbek national who had been radicalized by the Islamic State after moving to the United States on a diversity visa.

(JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Security crackdowns in Central Asia have driven many militants — and people susceptible to militancy and radicalization — away from the region and to more lax security environments, be they conflict zones in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, or more open communities in Europe and the United States.
Other Central Asian migrants have been radicalized abroad. Understanding that trend will require a nuanced view of the personal experiences of militants and how those experiences relate to their home countries and cultures and to those they attack.
Central Asian nationals will continue to conduct and participate in terrorist attacks abroad, particularly unsophisticated soft-target attacks such as those conducted in New York and Stockholm.

Though Central Asian nations have kept terrorism relatively contained recently, more Central Asian nationals seem to be conducting attacks abroad. There are two parts to the trend: First, in cracking down on extremist elements, Central Asian states are pushing radical nationals out of the country and into other conflict zones and into more open societies. Second, Central Asian emigrant populations, confronting difficulty abroad, may be ripe for radicalization in their new settings. It is into this second category that we can file Sayfullo Habibullaevic Saipov, who conducted a terrorist attack in New York City on Oct. 31, which killed eight people and injured 12 others....

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