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How Washington's CAATSA Threat Could Backfire

undefined and Senior Military Analyst
Omar Lamrani
Senior Military Analyst, Stratfor

Dec 12, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

Missiles manufactured by Lockheed Martin are displayed during the Association of the United States Army's annual meeting and exposition in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 13, 2014.

Missiles manufactured by Lockheed Martin are displayed during the Association of the United States Army's annual meeting and exposition in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 13, 2014. The United States' threats to sanction third countries for buying Russian arms could backfire.

(JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • As the Trump administration has prioritized arms sales as a central plank of its foreign policy, it is increasingly willing to leverage rewards and punishments to secure major arms deals. 
  • The Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act has emerged as a major punitive measure in the U.S. toolkit to weaken its primary competitor, Russia, and secure more weapons sales. 
  • Adopting a zero-sum approach to the market could help the U.S. in some cases, but it could equally work against Washington by driving away key partners.

In the competition to sell arms around the world, the United States and Russia are on a collision course. And in this battle, the former happens to have a trick up its sleeve: the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), a law that gives Washington the ability to impose punitive measures on countries that purchase weaponry from Moscow and, in theory, tilt the playing field in its favor. In the year to come, however, the CAATSA threat might not land the United States all the arms business it is expecting; indeed, in chafing at America's heavy-handed approach, plenty of middle powers could spurn Washington in favor of other suppliers -- or even Russia itself....

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