ASSESSMENTS

An Impatient Turkey Gets Ready to Enter Northeastern Syria

Oct 9, 2019 | 14:15 GMT

A member of the Kurdish Internal Security Police Force of Asayish stands guard at a market in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli on Aug. 5, 2019.

A member of the Kurdish Internal Security Police Force of Asayish stands guard at a market in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli on Aug. 5. Turkey is impatient to begin an incursion into Syrian areas like Qamishli.

(DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Turkey has long warned of an imminent offensive into northeastern Syria, but its latest warnings suggest an incursion is imminent this time.
A combination of Turkish impatience and a narrowing window for action could drive Ankara to finally launch the military operation.
But given that a unilateral operation would greatly displease the United States, Washington would likely respond with significant retaliation.

He's made the threat before, but this time, it might just be the real thing. On Aug. 6, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his warnings that Turkey is poised to launch a military operation against the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) east of the Euphrates River in northeastern Syria. The latest note came two days after Erdogan said Ankara had already notified both the United States and Russia of its plans. This is certainly not Turkey's first warning of an impending offensive in northeastern Syria. Turkey has long sought to push into the area, where the YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) hold ground. Until now, Turkey has not made an incursion because of the presence of U.S. troops there, as well as Washington's opposition to any such move. But Ankara's patience appears to have run out, and several factors suggest Turkey will make an incursion sooner, rather than later --...

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