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Iran Goes All in for a Game of Nuclear Chicken

undefined and Senior Global Analyst at RANE
Matthew Bey
Senior Global Analyst at RANE, Stratfor

Jul 11, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

A handout picture provided by the Iranian presidency on July 7, 2019, shows Iran's government spokesman Ali Rabiei, left, and Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a news conference in Tehran.

A handout picture provided by the Iranian presidency on July 7, 2019, shows Iran's government spokesman Ali Rabiei, left, and Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a joint news conference in Tehran. Iran does not necessarily want to develop nuclear weapons -- but that could change.

(-/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Iran has taken the provocative step of reaccelerating aspects of its nuclear program, yet its end goal is not necessarily to develop nuclear weapons but to increase its leverage and reenter talks for sanctions relief.
  • Unlike North Korea, Iran is not structured to survive as an isolated pariah state, meaning sanctions will hurt Tehran much more than they would hurt Pyongyang.
  • Iran has previously refrained from taking the final steps to construct a nuclear bomb, although its strategy has depended on refusing to rule out the possibility entirely. Tehran, accordingly, is likely to resume activities that make those final steps more attainable.
  • Both the United States and Iran are walking a tightrope in the latest game of nuclear brinkmanship, but the latter appears to have calculated that it can accept the risk of a potential U.S. — or Israeli — strike inside the country.

Once again, the United States and Iran find themselves in a familiar position: a high-stakes game of chicken over the Islamic republic's nuclear program. Iran's announcement this week that it had begun enriching uranium to 5 percent, which is above the limits set by the 2015 nuclear accord with the United States and five other global powers, is likely just the start of Iran's move to (re)accelerate its civilian nuclear program. Among other measures, Tehran has said it could increase enrichment to 20 percent, which would drastically shorten the timetable for a nuclear breakout -- the moment when a country acquires enough fissile material to construct an atomic bomb. Although expanding its nuclear activities will only increase the probability of a military confrontation with the United States -- or, at the very least, a limited military strike on its nuclear facilities -- Iran has a clear objective in the long...

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