ASSESSMENTS

Israel Lets the U.S. Take the Lead Against Iran

undefined and Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE
Ryan Bohl
Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE, Stratfor

Jan 14, 2020 | 10:30 GMT

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the Kohelet Policy Forum conference in Jerusalem on Jan. 8, 2020.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a Jan. 8 policy conference in Jerusalem. Netanyahu said Israel would retaliate with a "resounding blow" if attacked by Iran over the U.S. killing of Qassem Soleimani.

(MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The increased threat of a potential U.S.-Iran war has prompted Israel to temporarily step back from being the region's most aggressive anti-Iran state.
  • But that state of affairs depends on the United States continuing to address Israel's main areas of concern with Iran: its proxy militia networks and developing nuclear program.
  • The fear of starting an unpopular war ahead of the 2020 U.S. election, however, will make Washington less willing to gamble strong retaliation against further Iranian provocations.
  • In the coming months, Israel will thus be prepared to rapidly escalate and potentially even strike Iran at the first sign of enduring U.S. hesitance.

A more aggressive U.S. strategy against Iran is allowing Israel to dial back its own threats against its regional archnemesis. Israel's unusually subdued response to the recent U.S. killing of the Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, as well as Tehran's subsequent declaration that it would no longer adhere to the stipulations on uranium enrichment in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, represents a temporary tactical shift. For now, Israel will allow current U.S.-Iran tensions to play out while letting Washington take the brunt of the risk of regional conflict. But there's a limit to how long Israel will stand idly by. If a lack of U.S. action allows Iran to close in on building a nuclear weapon, or if it looks as if U.S. President Donald Trump may lose his reelection bid to a successor less willing to stridently back Israel's anti-Iran strategy, Israel will quickly retake its...

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