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A Journey Into the Russian Enigma

undefined and Senior Eurasia Analyst
Eugene Chausovsky
Senior Eurasia Analyst, Stratfor

Dec 13, 2018 | 05:00 GMT

Russian navy ships, among them the Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov, second from left, sail near Kronshtadt naval base outside St. Petersburg on July 20, 2018.

Russian navy ships, among them the Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov, second from left, sail near Kronshtadt naval base outside St. Petersburg on July 20, 2018. Russians from all walks of life believe the West will stop at nothing to undermine their country.

(OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The Russia-West standoff is likely to intensify in the coming year, as Moscow will be largely unwilling to make the kinds of concessions that the United States and European Union are seeking in order to end their sanctions and military buildups. 
  • Russia's ties with China have strengthened and will continue to grow, but any sustainable Moscow-Beijing alignment will ultimately face limits due to the Kremlin's deep-seated concerns about China's rise as a major power.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will face growing economic and political challenges on the home front, but these challenges will be manageable for the leader in the coming year. 
 

It was October 1939, and Winston Churchill was on BBC radio, describing Russia: "It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma." Of course, World War II had just begun, and the question regarding the intentions of the Soviet Union -- and particularly its relations with Nazi Germany -- was of paramount importance to the United Kingdom, Europe and the world at large. Bookending Churchill's characterization of Russia was the following: "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia … but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest." This quote has unique relevance to the work that we do at Stratfor. We produce forecasts, and driving those forecasts is a geopolitical methodology that considers first and foremost the broader national interest above the subjective considerations of individual leaders, decision-makers and ordinary citizens. With these principles in mind, I recently set off for a visit...

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