ASSESSMENTS

Charting the Growth and Turmoil of Hong Kong's Protest Movement

Aug 28, 2019 | 09:30 GMT

A protester attends a rally Aug. 23, 2019, at Chater Garden in Hong Kong. As protests become more geographically dispersed, frequent and violent, the chances of a direct intervention by Beijing are increasing.

A protester attends a rally Aug. 23, 2019, at Chater Garden in Hong Kong.

(LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Protests in Hong Kong have fragmented, spreading over a wider area and becoming more frequent and violent.
  • That wider dispersion makes them less predictable, makes clashes with police more likely to ensnare bystanders and threatens a wider swath of business property.
  • The movement risks turning into a series of urban guerrilla skirmishes, increasing the chances of direct intervention by Beijing.
     

Protests in Hong Kong are now dragging into their third month with no sign of letting up. In the past two months, demonstrations have expanded beyond the central business district and the Admiralty stop on the Mass Transit Railway to affect nearly every part of the Chinese special administrative region. Turnout has shrunk, but rallies have grown more frequent. Arrest and injury reports also support the general impression that the protests are growing more intense. As protests become more geographically dispersed, frequent and violent, the chances of direct intervention by Beijing are increasing....

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