ASSESSMENTS

Modi Plays the Populist Card as India's Elections Near

Nov 19, 2018 | 11:00 GMT

Samajwadi Party candidate Nagendra Pratap Singh Patel, center, celebrates with supporters in Allahabad after winning election to India's lower house of Parliament on March 14, 2018.

Samajwadi Party candidate Nagendra Pratap Singh Patel, center, celebrates after winning election to India's lower house of Parliament on March 14. In elections next year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party will face an emboldened opposition determined to deny Modi a repeat of his landslide victory in 2014.

(SANJAY KANOJIA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi's aim to win re-election in 2019 means his administration will selectively resort to Hindu nationalism and safeguard jobs in the small-business sector while advancing populist measures like "Modicare."
  • The fractured opposition will be willing to make compromises to unify in an attempt at forging a grand alliance aimed at dislodging Modi from power.
  • A return to a coalition government would hinder New Delhi's ability to pass key land and labor legislation needed to spur on the country's industrialization.
  • On foreign policy, the government will seek to improve relations with China to minimize politically costly foreign policy distractions ahead of the elections, although it is likely to take a harder line against Pakistan.

The world's largest election is fast approaching. In April 2019, hundreds of millions of Indians will head to the polls to choose 543 representatives to serve in the Lok Sabha, the country's lower house of Parliament. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leader of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the elections will serve as a referendum on his five years in office. But Modi will have to slog through a tough election season against an opposition buoyed by its own victories, as well as the opportunistic alliances that the Indian National Congress party and regional outfits have forged. Facing economic headwinds and lackluster job growth, Modi will rally his conservative base by selectively resorting to Hindu nationalism and maintaining high tariff barriers to protect domestic industry, all while the opposition seeks to build alliances to dislodge Modi from power. ...

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