ASSESSMENTS

Nicaragua's Wave of Protests Is Ending -- For Now

Jul 16, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

Paramilitaries surround the San Sebastian Basilica in Diriamba, Nicaragua, on July 9, 2018.

Paramilitaries surround the San Sebastian Basilica in Diriamba, Nicaragua, on July 9, 2018. The protests against Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega appear to be losing steam, but the country's leader will still face many problems going forward.

(MARVIN RECINOS/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Nicaragua's government is gaining the upper hand over a 3-month-old protest movement, but demonstrations could flare up again as President Daniel Ortega tries to cement his rule.
  • Because renewed protests would further strain Nicaragua’s economy, thereby inserting a wedge between Ortega and the country's business elites, the president will try to draw as many allies to his side by distributing benefits to them.
  • Nicaragua will pursue a more authoritarian path if protests continue but fail to unseat Ortega.
  • Though ending the protests will temporarily reduce business risks in Nicaragua, the specter of U.S. sanctions against Ortega and his allies will loom.

Three months after unrest began convulsing the country, Nicaragua’s government is slowly re-establishing control over the Central American nation. Though the government’s offensives will likely impose a relative calm, the prospect of renewed demonstrations will never be far away. President Daniel Ortega will be well aware that any serious unrest would do further damage to the economy -- thereby exposing rifts within the ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front that could ultimately spell an end to his rule....

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