COLUMNS

The Risks and Rewards of Moscow's Mission in Syria

Omar Lamrani

Senior Military Analyst, Stratfor

Oct 24, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (in front of flag) sit during a meeting in Sochi to discuss the situation in Syria.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (in front of flag) discuss the situation in Syria during a meeting in Sochi. As Russia's commitments in Syria grow, it might encounter more hiccups along the way.

(ALEXEI DRUZHININ/TASS via Getty Images)

Highlights

Russia, which only sent a comparatively small force to Syria, will continue to reap significant diplomatic, commercial and military rewards from its operations there.
Russia's continued presence in Syria, however, raises the risk that its operation could turn its operation there into a costly quagmire.
In particular, Russia might find it more difficult to keep apart Syrian and Turkish forces as they come into greater contact in northeastern Syria.

Just over four years after the Russian military intervention in Syria first began, Moscow continues to enjoy the diplomatic, commercial and military rewards of its operation in the Levant. By driving a wedge between its NATO foes, testing out new weaponry and more, Russia has notched up a number of strategic and tactical successes in Syria. These gains notwithstanding, it's not all clear sailing for Moscow ahead: From greater exposure to militant attacks to the prospect that Russia will suffer collateral damage in regional power battles, there are plenty of risks ahead that could yet sink Moscow's fortunes. ...

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