ASSESSMENTS

Sanctions Will Widen the Russia-West Rift in 2019

Feb 21, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

Ukrainian servicemen take part in a drill on Azov Sea on Jan. 20, 2019. On Feb. 13, a group of bipartisan U.S. senators from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee introduced a bill to ramp up sanctions against Russia due to its alleged interference in U.S. elections and its "malign" activities in Ukraine and Syria.

(ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

The United States is all but guaranteed to increase sanctions against Russia in the coming months.
With Congress's hawks demanding a hard line on Moscow and the White House favoring moderation, the extent of U.S. sanctions will fall somewhere between the two extremes.
The European Union will also increase sanctions against Russia, albeit to a much more limited degree than the United States.
Russia will succeed in managing the economic fallout from the sanctions with its sanctions insulation strategy, but prolonged measures will continue to undermine the country's longer-term economic outlook.

Five years in, the standoff between Russia and the West shows no signs of abating. On Feb. 13, a group of bipartisan U.S. senators from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee introduced a bill to ramp up sanctions against Russia due to its alleged interference in U.S. elections and its "malign" activities in Ukraine and Syria. In the meantime, reports have emerged that both the United States and European Union are close to passing a new set of sanctions against Russia over the showdown between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Sea of Azov. The European Union, meanwhile, is also considering its own raft of sanctions. And given that Russia is unlikely to plot a new course in Ukraine or Syria as a result of increased sanctions, the West's measures are only likely to inflame Moscow-West tensions. ...

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