ASSESSMENTS

In Syria, COVID-19 and Economic Woes Will Dampen Damascus' Ambitions

undefined and Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE
Ryan Bohl
Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE, Stratfor

Jul 21, 2020 | 09:30 GMT

A rally in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on June 11, 2020, at Umayyad Square in Damascus, Syria.

A rally in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on June 11, 2020, at Umayyad Square in Damascus, Syria.

(Louai Beshara/AFP)

Highlights

  • Economic and health crises have undercut Damascus' appetite for new major military offensives by creating dissent in previously secure territory, making the Syrian regime more likely to try to consolidate its gains.
  • To maintain regime stability, Syria will focus on suppressing protests, reshuffling loyalists inside the government and shoring up its relationship with Moscow. 
  • This should give Turkey time to further entrench itself in northern and northeastern Syria while reducing pressure from Damascus on America's primary ally, the Syrian Democratic Forces. 

Economic and health crises have undercut Damascus' appetite for new major military offensives by creating dissent in previously secure territory. This suggests the al Assad government will attempt to consolidate power within loyalist territories before renewing efforts to eliminate Turkish and American influence....

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