ASSESSMENTS

In Thailand, the Junta's Policies Will Prevail, Regardless of Who Wins the Election

Mar 15, 2019 | 19:50 GMT

Supporters of the lead pro-military party in Thailand gather outside as the party's candidates arrive to register for country's upcoming election.

Supporters of Thailand's pro-military Palang Pracharath party gather outside as the party's candidates register with the election commission in February 2019.

Highlights

Both establishment and pro-Thaksin parties will be vying to prevent military-aligned political forces from sustaining the junta's grip on power in the new parliament.
But even if one of these civilian parties wins the seats needed to form a government, its policies will largely be bound to the trajectory laid out by the junta due to constitutional constraints.
These institutional barriers to civilian rule may initially spark a backlash in the form of protests, party infighting and policy shifts following the election.
Compared with the tumultuous decade and a half before the coup, however, limitations on the junta's ability to act will diminish the scope of such disruptions — minimizing the risk to major infrastructure stakeholders, such as China and Japan.

After five years of extended military rule since the coup in 2014, followed by the death of iconic King Bhumibol Adulyadej in 2016, electoral politics are tentatively resuming in Thailand. On March 24, more than 50 million voters nationwide will cast their votes for candidates vying for the country's House of Representatives. But after 15 years punctuated by bloody protests, coups and toppled governments, the memory of Thailand's tumultuous past remains fresh. And many are wary that the country could swing back into the cyclical disruptions that have jeopardized its status as a manufacturing powerhouse in Southeast Asia....

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