ASSESSMENTS

Turkey After Afrin

Mar 14, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

Turkey's Operation Olive Branch advances through northwestern Syria.

Turkish tanks and helicopters advance toward the village of Maabatli in the Afrin region of northwestern Syria as part of the ongoing offensive on March 2, 2018.

(BAKR ALKASEM/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Turkey's military will ultimately prevail in Afrin due to its numerous advantages over the defending Kurdish militia there. 
  • Turkish success in Afrin will embolden Ankara to undertake further operations in pursuit of its regional strategy and in its efforts to weaken Kurdish separatism. 
  • As Turkey pursues its interests further in Syria and Iraq, regional powers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia will increasingly push back against Turkish ambition.

More than 50 days on, NATO's second largest army is finally bringing its superior weight to bear in its attack on Afrin. Despite a slow start to Operation Olive Branch, Turkey has shown that its military remains an effective and powerful force, despite recent domestic turmoil, as it fights to remove the People's Protection Units (YPG) and its local allies from the mountainous area on Turkey's border. Any success in the operations against Afrin will likely embolden Ankara to undertake further military action to consolidate its position in the region and prevent the YPG from expanding its influence and territory -- even if that puts Turkey on a collision course with other countries with interests in the region....

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