As Ukraine Talks Continue, So Does Fighting in Donbas

Ukrainian, Russian and separatist representatives are preparing for a potential renewal of the Minsk talks, with a presidential-level summit of Ukrainian, Russian, German and French leaders planned in Astana later this month. Meanwhile, fighting along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian security forces has returned to levels seen in the last quarter of 2014, reversing the gains made during the de-escalation in early December.

The Kremlin's strategy of using fighting in eastern Ukraine as a lever in the ongoing negotiations, as well as the nature of Russia's relationship with the separatists, has contributed to the recent uptick in violence. Nevertheless, faced with growing financial and political constraints, the Kremlin will not seek a significant escalation in eastern Ukraine in the long run, choosing instead to reduce violence along the contact line, although some low-level fighting could continue for some time.