COLUMNS

As the U.S. Squeezes Iran, Europe Is Stuck in the Middle

undefined and Senior Global Analyst at RANE

Matthew Bey

Senior Global Analyst at RANE, Stratfor

Emily Hawthorne

Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE

Jan 30, 2020 | 09:00 GMT

Construction of a second phase at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, part of the Iranian civilian nuclear program, continues.

Laborers work at the construction site of the second phase of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran, on Nov. 10, 2019. As it tries to break the U.S. maximum pressure campaign, Iran will continue to expand its nuclear program as it tries to maneuver around the U.S. maximum sanctions campaign.

(AHMAD HALABISAZ/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Highlights

The United States has shown little willingness to relent on its pressure campaign against Iran, but Iran has shown little sign it is prepared to bend to the pressure.
European powers have little interest in moving quickly with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action's dispute resolution process they triggered in early January, which they hope will limit Iranian nuclear activities.
The United States will continue to expand sanctions pressure on Iran, but is nearing the limits of the strategy's efficacy, and so will turn to even harsher measures, including trying to force European countries into a more aggressive stance against Iran or seeking to snap back U.N. sanctions on its own.

Tensions between the United States and Iran will almost certainly escalate once again later this year as Iran's nuclear program continues to expand. Iran is likely to continue to be more aggressive on its nuclear policy because of U.S. sanctions despite EU efforts to dissuade Iran from doing so, and if the European Union does not proceed with the dispute resolution mechanism, then the United States may find a way to force sanctions to snap back on its own initiative. It will also exert diplomatic pressure -- backed by threats of punitive measures -- on the E3 to take a harder line against Iran. Iran, however, is unlikely to budge on the U.S. maximum pressure campaign before the November U.S. presidential election. And this creates the potential for a crisis involving a limited military confrontation. ...

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