ASSESSMENTS

Why the U.S. Will Keep Russian Sanctions on Simmer, Not Boil

Aug 27, 2018 | 10:00 GMT

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, left, and an aide walk toward the Senate chamber in the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 12, 2018.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, left, and an aide walk toward the Senate chamber in the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 12, 2018. A bipartisan group of senators is planning to ramp up the sanctions against Russia, but Washington is unlikely to go to extremes in pressuring Moscow.

(ALEX WONG/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The United States will almost certainly impose more sanctions against Russia in the coming months, but the extent of the measures will be a product of deliberation and compromise between the U.S. Congress and the Trump administration.
  • Russia's efforts to strengthen financial stability and diversify its economic ties as part of its strategy to insulate itself from sanctions will enable Moscow to avoid any major economic disruptions — at least in the near term.
  • Despite the increase in sanctions, the United States and Russia will nevertheless continue to conduct negotiations on issues of contention, including arms control and Syria.

The standoff between the United States and Russia shows no signs of abating, and nowhere is the discord more apparent than in Washington's use of sanctions against Moscow. Washington expanded its sanctions against Moscow on Aug. 27 by banning the export to Russia of sensitive national security-related goods, including calibration equipment and gas turbine engines. But hot on the heels of the present sanctions is another bill, the Defending American Security From Kremlin Aggression Act, that could challenge Russia. But the senators might not succeed in passing their bill to the fullest extent, as some of their congressional colleagues have expressed concern that the new sanctions could go too far in punishing the Russian economy -- and even affect the wider world. But regardless of the ultimate degree of U.S. actions, Washington is unlikely to forego sanctions as a weapon in its relations with the Kremlin....

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