Canada

 The Trump administration's sanctions strategy will be a crucial component of any ceasefire or other agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war, as the Kremlin will likely demand that the United States substantially weaken sanctions on Russian energy exports to Asia.

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia 

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Situation Report for Geo-Focus role teaser body.

Situation Report for Geo-Focus role

India

Politics

India's Ministry of External Affairs recalled its charge d'affaires from Canada, announcing plans to withdraw the high commissioner and other diplomats and officials from the country as well, The New York Times reported on Oct. 14.

India, Canada: New Delhi Recalls Diplomats Over Canadian Investigation

Mexico

United States

Economics

At a campaign event, former U.S. President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump threatened to place 200% tariffs on John Deere equipment made in Mexico that was previously made in the United States, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 23. 

U.S., Mexico: Trump Threatens Tariffs on John Deere for Moving Production to Mexico

Australia

China

Japan

New Zealand

South Korea

United Kingdom

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Science & Technology

Leaders of the AUKUS grouping (the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia) issued a joint statement on Sept. 18 revealing ongoing consultations with Canada, New Zealand and South Korea to collaborate on Pillar II of the agreement.

AUKUS: Joint Statement Hints at Expansion

Canada's New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh announced on social media that his party was exiting the 2022 supply-and-confidence agreement that enabled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party to form a minority government, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported on Sept. 4.

Canada: NDP Exits Supply-and-Confidence Agreement Supporting Liberal Government

Outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced a "pause" on Mexico's diplomatic relations with the U.S. and Canadian Embassies after these countries' top diplomats criticized his judicial reform proposal, Reuters reported on Aug. 27. 

Mexico, Canada, U.S.: Mexican Diplomatic 'Pause' With U.S., Canadian Embassies Unlikely to Disrupt Businesses 

The Canada Industrial Relations Board, or CIRB, ordered Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City to resume operations, approving the Labor Ministry's Aug. 22 request for binding arbitration to reopen the railways formally after the companies launched a worker lockout, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 24. 

Canada: Railway Operations Resume Despite Union Attempt To Launch Strike

Assessments

Costa Rica

Dominican Republic

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his wife Jeanette Rubio arrive at the State Department in Washington, D.C., to speak to employees on Jan. 21, 2025. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Expires, Rubio Tours Latin America

Media

Malaysia

Podcasts

What is Salt Typhoon, and what happened in the recent hack against U.S. telecommunications companies? 

Essential Geopolitics: Unpacking China's Salt Typhoon Operation 

Cyber

We analyze some of the ways ChatGPT could be abused in the near future -- or already is. 

Essential Geopolitics: The Cyber Risks From ChatGPT

Annual

Forecasts

The Geopolitics of Water

Low economic growth, pervasive financial risks, the stalemate in Ukraine and technological competition between the world’s largest economies will drive geopolitical risk during the third quarter.

Annual Geopolitical Forecast for Geo-Focus user

Quarterly

Quarterly Forecast for Geo-Focus role teaser body.

Quarterly Forecast for Geo-Focus role

Snapshots

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment Edited

Indian policemen stand guard outside the entrance of the High Commission of Canada in New Delhi on Oct. 15, 2024. 

The dispute over India's alleged covert activities on Canadian soil will raise the risk of restricted consular services and protests in both countries, but major economic disruptions are unlikely.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Rift Hits a New Low

The national Parliament in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.

The prospect alone of early elections will paralyze policymaking until the deadline for general elections next year.

Trudeau's Struggles Will Paralyze Policymaking in Canada Ahead of Elections

A Sikh protest on Sept. 22, 2023, in Amritsar, India. India may conduct further covert action in the West that disrupts diplomatic relations, but more consequential, longer-lasting ruptures between the two sides remain unlikely.

India may conduct further covert action in the West that disrupts diplomatic relations, but more consequential, longer-lasting ruptures between the two sides remain unlikely.

How Indian Covert Action in the West Would Affect Ties

World Sikh Organization of Canada President Mukhbir Singh and National Council of Canadian Muslims CEO Stephen Brown speak during a press conference at the Canadian House of Commons in Ottawa on Sept. 19, 2023.

Recent allegations will raise tensions between Canada and India, leading to near-term security risks and possible tit-for-tat retaliation.

Canada-India Ties Take a Dive Following Ottawa's Allegations

Can masks protect you from wildfire smoke?

Beyond COVID: Potential Health Effects From the Canadian Wildfires

Iran

Turkey

Europe

The flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) flutters in front of the IAEA building in Vienna, Austria, on July 10, 2019.

Energy

The Weekly Rundown: EU Commission President Visits the U.S. and Canada, China's 'Two Sessions' Meetings Begin

Located on the North American continent, Canada is the world’s second-largest country. Most of Canada is uninhabited wilderness, and Arctic temperatures make the northern territories inhospitable to large population centers.     Canada became independent from the United Kingdom in 1867. The country is made up of 10 provinces and three territories. A majority of Canada’s 35 million people reside within 100 kilometers of the U.S. border, where the climate and topography support meaningful populations. However this population is spread across a distance of roughly 7,000 kilometers, from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans. Canada's primary geographic challenge is maintaining unity across its diverse population cores, which include Toronto and Montreal in the Great Lakes watershed; the prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta; and Vancouver on the Pacific coast.     The economies of these population cores are geared toward external trade as they try to meet demand for their services, manufactured goods and natural resources like oil. Heavy crude oil found largely in the province of Alberta is exported to U.S. and international markets, making Canada the world’s sixth-largest oil producer. Distance and climate are perennial challenges for Canada. The Trans-Canada Railway was Ottawa’s first effort, completed in 1886, to link Montreal, Toronto, the prairies and Vancouver. Redistribution payments, collected from resource-rich provinces and disbursed to resource-poor provinces and territories, is a contemporary policy aimed to unify and equalize provincial and territorial finances.     Because of its location, Canada is well within the U.S. sphere of influence and the country's freedom to act is constrained by U.S. interests.

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia

Situation Report for Geo-Focus role

India, Canada: New Delhi Recalls Diplomats Over Canadian Investigation

U.S., Mexico: Trump Threatens Tariffs on John Deere for Moving Production to Mexico

AUKUS: Joint Statement Hints at Expansion

Canada: NDP Exits Supply-and-Confidence Agreement Supporting Liberal Government

Mexico, Canada, U.S.: Mexican Diplomatic 'Pause' With U.S., Canadian Embassies Unlikely to Disrupt Businesses

Canada: Railway Operations Resume Despite Union Attempt To Launch Strike

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