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Cyber

Economics

Global Elections

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Taiwan

Military & Security

Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party legislators suggested amending the annual budget to introduce cuts of up to 44% on 38 defense projects, including the country's domestic submarine development program, drones and mine-laying vessels, Focus Taiwan reported on Jan. 16.

Taiwan: Budget Cuts Highlight Potential Wrinkle in U.S. Defense Cooperation

Mozambique

Militants belonging to Islamic State West African Province, or ISWAP, and Jama'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihad, also known as JAS or Boko Haram, on Jan. 14  killed at least 40 people from Nigeria's Dumba community in Borno state, Reuters reported the following day. ISWAP and JAS militants killed farmers and fishermen in Dumba, near Lake Chad, and reportedly left many others missing. 

The Weekly Rundown: Mozambique's President Takes Office, the U.K. Chancellor Visits China

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

The U.S. Treasury Department is finalizing its final rule to block certain outbound investments into China covering the artificial intelligence, semiconductor, microelectronics and quantum computing sectors, Reuters reported on Oct. 21.

China, U.S: Washington To Formally Ban Certain Investments Into AI, Semiconductors in China

India

India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that India and China had reached an agreement for patrolling their disputed border that may lead to "disengagement and eventually a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020," though Beijing did not immediately comment on the announcement, AP reported on Oct. 21.

India, China: Countries Reach Border Patrolling Agreement in Interest of Disengagement

Myanmar

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was "deeply shocked" by an Oct. 18 attack on its consulate in Mandalay, Myanmar, by rebel forces, the South China Morning Post reported on Oct. 21.

Myanmar: China Condemns Attack on Consulate Building in Mandalay, Demands Action

United Kingdom

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy is traveling to China for high-level meetings as part of a two-day visit that will take him to Beijing, where he will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Shanghai, where he will meet British business leaders in China, a press release from London showed on Oct. 18.

U.K., China: British Foreign Secretary David Lammy Visits China

Media

Podcasts

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Assessments

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Quarterly

Forecasts

In short, 2025 will be a pivotal year shaped by trade disruptions, geopolitical shifts and domestic challenges across the globe. While some countries will focus on domestic stabilization after years of political and economic turbulence, others will face new geopolitical tensions and opportunities as global powers recalibrate their strategies in an evolving international landscape.

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Russia

Annual

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Rwanda

(Photo by ALFREDO ZUNIGA/AFP via Getty Images)

Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party will likely remain in power in the upcoming general election and maintain close ties with Rwanda, the European Union and China, as well as ensure broad continuity in the liquified natural gas sector, but the probable electoral manipulation will likely trigger anti-government protests.

stag: Mozambique's General Election Brings LNG Contracts Centerstage

Iran

Israel

Syria

Europe

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

What Happened
Three trade and payment sources, including a manager at a large Russian bank, claimed Russia and China were considering using the barter system to limit exposure to U.S. financial sanctions, with a barter system in agricultural goods possible this fall, Reuters reported on Aug. 8. One Russian government source suggested that China was holding up "political things that need solving" for the system.

China: Can the Barter System Beat Western Sanctions (text changed)

Canada

The Geopolitics of Water

Low economic growth, pervasive financial risks, the stalemate in Ukraine and technological competition between the world’s largest economies will drive geopolitical risk during the third quarter.

Annual Geopolitical Forecast for Geo-Focus user

Columns

On Security

Six months later Ramon Diaz and the rest of his seven-man entourage were blocked from even entering the ground.

Column on Security for Geo-Focus role

Nepal

A man watches a news program about Chinese military drills surrounding Taiwan on a giant screen outside a shopping mall in Beijing on Oct. 14, 2024.

STAG: Chinese Drills Around Taiwan Practice for a Blockade, Even if One Isn't Imminent UPDATED

Azerbaijan

A sign for COP29 on Nov. 3, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. Negotiators at this year's U.N. Climate Change Conference will ultimately reach a new global climate finance deal, but progress on the global energy transition will not accelerate.

Negotiators at this year's U.N. Climate Change Conference will ultimately reach a new global climate finance deal, but progress on the global energy transition will not accelerate significantly.

What to Watch for at This Year's 'Finance COP' in Azerbaijan

The world is undergoing extensive demographic changes that are slowing economic growth and raising public debt, increasing the risk of medium-term financial instability and conflict over resource distribution in many advanced economies while increasing political and economic instability in many low-income developing economies.

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<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

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Taiwan: Budget Cuts Highlight Potential Wrinkle in U.S. Defense Cooperation

The Weekly Rundown: Mozambique's President Takes Office, the U.K. Chancellor Visits China

China, U.S: Washington To Formally Ban Certain Investments Into AI, Semiconductors in China

India, China: Countries Reach Border Patrolling Agreement in Interest of Disengagement

Myanmar: China Condemns Attack on Consulate Building in Mandalay, Demands Action

U.K., China: British Foreign Secretary David Lammy Visits China

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