United States

Russia

Economics

Energy

The United States imposed some of its harshest sanctions yet on Russia's energy sector, designating over 180 vessels, Russian oil producers Surgutneftegas and Gazprom Neft, Russian maritime insurance providers Ingosstrakh and Alfastrakhovanie, and dozens of oil traders and other entities, The Washington Post reported on Jan. 10.


Russia, U.S.: Washington Steps Up Sanctions on Russian Oil

Ukraine

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Incoming U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz laid out several points of the incoming Trump administration's approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, most notably a request for Ukraine to lower its mobilization age from the current 25 to 18, ABC News reported on Jan. 12.

Ukraine: U.S. National Security Adviser Pushes Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

Canada

Situation Report for Geo-Focus role teaser body.

Situation Report for Geo-Focus role

The Russian ruble reached nearly 115 rubles per dollar, its lowest level since March 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported Nov. 27.

STAGING: Russia: Ruble Exchange Rate Hits Lowest Point Since UPDATED March 2022 

North Korea

South Korea's National Intelligence Service confirmed North Korea decided to send four brigades with a total of 12,000 troops to support Russia in its war with Ukraine, adding that the North Korean forces had been issued Russian military uniforms, weapons and fake identification documents, Reuters reported on Oct. 18.

North Korea, Russia, Ukraine: North Korean Forces Training in Russia To Participate in War With Ukraine

Russian troops established two footholds in territory west of the Seversky Donets Canal inside Ukraine's town of Chasiv Yar after renewing their offensive earlier the same week, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 18.

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Enter Chasiv Yar, Crossing Canal

South Korea

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that North Korea was assisting Russia with military personnel and workers in Russian factories, citing Ukrainian intelligence, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 16.

North Korea, Ukraine: North Korean Troops Supporting Russia's War Against Ukraine, Zelensky Says

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine's five-point "victory plan" for the war with Russia to his country's parliament, the Rada, AP reported on Oct. 16.

Ukraine, Russia: Zelensky Presents 'Victory Plan' to Ukrainian People

Annual

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Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Science & Technology

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Q1 Geopolitical Forecast

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

Germany

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's Energy Landscape

Assessments

Israel

Syria

China

Europe

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

The Geopolitics of Water

Low economic growth, pervasive financial risks, the stalemate in Ukraine and technological competition between the world’s largest economies will drive geopolitical risk during the third quarter.

Annual Geopolitical Forecast for Geo-Focus user

Wharf Jeremie gang leader Monel "Mikano" Felix ordered his followers to launch a massacre in the Cite Soleil area in central Port-au-Prince on Dec. 6-7 after a Vodou priest accused elderly people of harming the gang leader's child using witchcraft, Reuters reported on Dec. 8. 

Haiti: Worst Massacre Since February Kills Nearly 200 People

Snapshots

Austria

A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.

Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria

Staging Test : Recent U.S. Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) Activity Indicates Upcoming Areas of Focus

Moldova

An illustration of Russian and Moldovan flags.

The near rejection of the vote on EU membership reflects the continued strength of pro-Russian political forces ahead of the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government

On Security

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

Ethiopia

Kenya

South Africa

Brazil

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Indonesia

India

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the BRICS Business Forum on Oct. 18, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Despite host nation Russia's desire to speed progress on key issues like de-dollarization, internal disputes will likely prevent major breakthroughs that challenge the Western-led world order in the near term.

Russia's Goals for the BRICS Summit Will Likely Go Unrealized

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, U.S.: Washington Steps Up Sanctions on Russian Oil

Ukraine: U.S. National Security Adviser Pushes Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

Situation Report for Geo-Focus role

STAGING: Russia: Ruble Exchange Rate Hits Lowest Point Since UPDATED March 2022

North Korea, Russia, Ukraine: North Korean Forces Training in Russia To Participate in War With Ukraine

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Enter Chasiv Yar, Crossing Canal

North Korea, Ukraine: North Korean Troops Supporting Russia's War Against Ukraine, Zelensky Says

Ukraine, Russia: Zelensky Presents 'Victory Plan' to Ukrainian People

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