Iran

Israel

Energy

Military & Security

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. President Joe Biden that Israel is willing to strike Iranian military sites instead of Iranian nuclear and oil sites in its response to Iran's Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel, The Washington Post reported on Oct. 14. 

Israel, Iran: Netanyahu Says Israel Will Not Target Iranian Nuclear, Energy Infrastructure

United States

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The U.S. Pentagon confirmed it is sending Israel a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, along with 100 troops to operate the system, to help defend the country following Iran's Oct. 1 ballistic missile barrage and amid continued Hezbollah attacks, the BBC reported Oct. 14.

Israel: U.S. To Send THAAD Anti-Missile System and Troops To Operate It

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

Economics

Politics

EU foreign ministers approved new sanctions on seven individuals and seven entities linked to Iran over accusations that Iran sent ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, the European Council announced in an Oct. 14 press release.

EU, Iran: Europe Announces New Sanctions on Iran Over Ballistic Missile Transfers to Russia

Iran warned that it would respond if Gulf Arab countries allowed the United States to use their airspace or military bases against Iran, Reuters reported on Oct. 8, a day before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Saudi Arabia to speak with Saudi officials.

Iran: Tehran Warns Against the U.S. Using Gulf Territory, Airspace To Attack Iran

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

U.S. President Joe Biden said he would not support an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, BBC reported on Oct. 2. 

Israel, Iran: Opposition to Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Program Increases Regional Risk to Oil and Gas Infrastructure

The United States warned that Iran was preparing an "imminent" ballistic missile attack on Israel, adding just after 10 a.m. Eastern time that the attack would likely occur within the next 12 hours, likely after dark, The New York Times reported on Oct. 1. 

Israel, Iran: U.S. Warns Israel of 'Imminent' Iranian Attack

Iraq

The United States announced the U.S.-led coalition's military mission in Iraq would conclude by the end of 2025 as the first part of a two-phase transition, though it was not called a "full withdrawal," AP reported on Sept. 27.

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Announces End to U.S.-Led Coalition's Iraq Mission in 2025

Venezuela

China

Czech Republic

Spain

Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announced that the government arrested three U.S. citizens, two Spaniards and a Czech national for their alleged participation in a conspiracy to destabilize the administration, El Pais reported on Sept. 14. 

Venezuela: Alleged Anti-Government Plot Portends Crackdown on Opposition

Columns

On Geopolitics

Germany

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's Energy Landscape

Assessments

Syria

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Snapshots

The Iranian capital of Tehran. An Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

Israel's October Strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility Indicates More Strikes Ahead

On Security

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

Ethiopia

Kenya

South Africa

Brazil

Egypt

Indonesia

Moldova

India

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

Pakistan

Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets fired from southern Lebanon on Sept. 27, 2024, over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel.

The Weekly Rundown: A Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting, Chinese Financial Support Measures

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Mozambique

Tunisia

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Jordan

Oman

Qatar

Turkey

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Authorities in Israel's southern city of Gedera assess a damaged school building after a projectile exploded upon impact on Oct. 1, 2024, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. 

Israel will most likely strike a small number of targets inside Iran, but there is a chance it will pursue more escalatory options that would likely invite further Iranian attacks.

Gauging Israel's Options for Responding to Iran's Ballistic Missile Attack

Smoke rises from rubble at the scene of Israeli air strikes in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sept. 27, 2024.

Israel's expanding assassination campaign will compel Hezbollah to escalate its cross-border attacks and could eventually force Iran to intervene to protect its most reliable proxy.

Israel Goes After Hezbollah's Top Leader, Leaving Little Room for Deescalation

Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Iran: Netanyahu Says Israel Will Not Target Iranian Nuclear, Energy Infrastructure

Israel: U.S. To Send THAAD Anti-Missile System and Troops To Operate It

EU, Iran: Europe Announces New Sanctions on Iran Over Ballistic Missile Transfers to Russia

Iran: Tehran Warns Against the U.S. Using Gulf Territory, Airspace To Attack Iran

Israel, Iran: Opposition to Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Program Increases Regional Risk to Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Israel, Iran: U.S. Warns Israel of 'Imminent' Iranian Attack

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Announces End to U.S.-Led Coalition's Iraq Mission in 2025

Venezuela: Alleged Anti-Government Plot Portends Crackdown on Opposition

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