United States

Israel

Lebanon

Military & Security

Politics

The U.S. Biden administration dispatched special envoy Amos Hochstein -- who brokered the 2022 maritime agreement between Lebanon and Israel -- to Lebanon to present proposed Israeli conditions for de-escalation, Axios reported on Oct. 21.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Proposes Maximalist Conditions for Diplomatic Settlement With Lebanon

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

The Israeli military exchanged fire with several suspects crossing from Jordan into Israel south of the Dead Sea region, Reuters reported on Oct. 18. 

West Bank: Gunmen Entering From Jordan Injure Two Israeli Soldiers

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Police DNA tests confirmed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed on Oct. 16, The Times of Israel reported on Oct. 17.

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Leader's Death Broaches Question of Succession

The White House sent a letter to the Israeli government on Oct. 13 saying that Israel risks losing U.S. military aid due to legal restrictions unless Israel improves the humanitarian conditions in Gaza in 30 days, Axios reported on Oct. 15.

Israel, U.S.: Poor Humanitarian Conditions in Gaza Endanger U.S. Military Aid for Israel

Former military officials and defense analysts have warned that Israel faces a potential shortage of interceptor missiles as U.S. stockpiles and Israeli defense companies try to meet increased demand, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 15. 

Israel: Potential Missile Interceptor Shortage Presents Challenges Under Prolonged War

Iran

Energy

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. President Joe Biden that Israel is willing to strike Iranian military sites instead of Iranian nuclear and oil sites in its response to Iran's Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel, The Washington Post reported on Oct. 14. 

Israel, Iran: Netanyahu Says Israel Will Not Target Iranian Nuclear, Energy Infrastructure

The U.S. Pentagon confirmed it is sending Israel a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, along with 100 troops to operate the system, to help defend the country following Iran's Oct. 1 ballistic missile barrage and amid continued Hezbollah attacks, the BBC reported Oct. 14.

Israel: U.S. To Send THAAD Anti-Missile System and Troops To Operate It

Lebanon's Hezbollah launched a combined drone and rocket attack against an Israeli military base housing the Golani Brigade in the town of Binyamina south of Haifa on Oct. 13, killing at least four soldiers and injuring 58, BBC reported on Oct 14. 

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Drone Attack Kills Four in Haifa Israeli Military Base

Assessments

Syria

China

Europe

Russia

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Snapshots

The Iranian capital of Tehran. An Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

Israel's October Strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility Indicates More Strikes Ahead

People are reflected in a window displaying a poster of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Palestinian camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8, 2024, in Beirut, Lebanon. 

Sinwar's assassination sets Hamas on the path of succession once more, opening the door to policy change and factionalism.

What Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar's Death Means for the Gaza War

A general view shows a session at the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem on March 20, 2023. 

To keep all of its coalition members happy, Israel's government will avoid specifying its conditions for a victory in Gaza and Lebanon, setting the stage for open-ended military campaigns that could embolden extremist Jewish settlers.

The Risks of Israel's Open-Ended Policies in Gaza and Lebanon

India

Pakistan

Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets fired from southern Lebanon on Sept. 27, 2024, over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel.

Economics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting, Chinese Financial Support Measures

A plume of smoke billows following an Israeli air strike above a border town in southern Lebanon on Oct. 7, 2024. 

While the country may initially come together in the face of Israel's invasion, various Lebanese factions will probably become more critical of Hezbollah as the war wears on, raising the risk of violence between the group and its domestic rivals.

How Long Will Lebanon Rally Behind Hezbollah's Fight Against Israel?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iraq

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Mozambique

Brazil

Tunisia

Germany

Ukraine

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Ethiopia

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Turkey

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Authorities in Israel's southern city of Gedera assess a damaged school building after a projectile exploded upon impact on Oct. 1, 2024, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. 

Israel will most likely strike a small number of targets inside Iran, but there is a chance it will pursue more escalatory options that would likely invite further Iranian attacks.

Gauging Israel's Options for Responding to Iran's Ballistic Missile Attack

Israeli tanks gather by the Lebanese border on Sept. 30, 2024. 

Israel is trying to seize on the chaos its recent attacks have inflicted on Hezbollah, but no ground operation will firmly and quickly secure southern Lebanon, and could pull Israel into a prolonged and costly campaign.

Assessing Israel's Options for a Ground Invasion in Lebanon

Israel lives under difficult geopolitical circumstances. A small country with limited resources and surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors, Israel survives by allying with powers that do have the resources to manage the balance of power in the Middle East — namely, the United States. Its geographic position also means that Israel must manage complex relations with its Muslim neighbors by quiet collaboration, by exploiting divisions, and by parlaying its technological and economic advantages into create strategic dependencies. To navigate all the challenges presented by the Middle East, Israel will remain agile in its diplomacy and, when the situation warrants, steadfast in its pre-emptive strikes, its covert activities and its economic relationships.

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Proposes Maximalist Conditions for Diplomatic Settlement With Lebanon

West Bank: Gunmen Entering From Jordan Injure Two Israeli Soldiers

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Leader's Death Broaches Question of Succession

Israel, U.S.: Poor Humanitarian Conditions in Gaza Endanger U.S. Military Aid for Israel

Israel: Potential Missile Interceptor Shortage Presents Challenges Under Prolonged War

Israel, Iran: Netanyahu Says Israel Will Not Target Iranian Nuclear, Energy Infrastructure

Israel: U.S. To Send THAAD Anti-Missile System and Troops To Operate It

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Drone Attack Kills Four in Haifa Israeli Military Base

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