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The U.S. Biden administration dispatched special envoy Amos Hochstein -- who brokered the 2022 maritime agreement between Lebanon and Israel -- to Lebanon to present proposed Israeli conditions for de-escalation, Axios reported on Oct. 21.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Proposes Maximalist Conditions for Diplomatic Settlement With Lebanon

Lebanon's Hezbollah launched a combined drone and rocket attack against an Israeli military base housing the Golani Brigade in the town of Binyamina south of Haifa on Oct. 13, killing at least four soldiers and injuring 58, BBC reported on Oct 14. 

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Drone Attack Kills Four in Haifa Israeli Military Base

The Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, started ground operations in the southwestern sector of southern Lebanon while bolstering its armed forces with an additional division, Haaretz reported on Oct. 8.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Expands Operations in Lebanon, Risking an Extended Conflict

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced that they had begun conducting raids into border villages inside Lebanon since the night of Sept. 30 as part of their planned ground operations into southern Lebanon, Times of Israel reported Oct. 1.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Begins Ground Invasion of Lebanon

Israel rejected U.S.-backed calls for an immediate 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Reuters reported Sept. 26.

U.S., Israel, Lebanon: Israel Rejects U.S.-Backed Calls for 21 Day Ceasefire with Hezbollah

Lebanon's militant and political group Hezbollah fired a medium-range surface-to-surface Qader 1 ballistic missile toward Tel Aviv for the first time, and Israel's air defense system shot it down, Reuters reported on Sept. 25. 

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Launches Ballistic Missile Toward Tel Aviv

An Israeli strike on a suburb in southern Beirut, Lebanon, killed at least 10 people, including Ibrahim Aqil, a top Hezbollah military leader and member of the Jihad Council, and other Hezbollah commanders, Reuters reported on Sept. 20. 

Israel, Lebanon: Israeli Strike Kills Hezbollah Military Leader in Beirut

Thousands of Hezbollah walkie-talkies exploded in Lebanon -- just one day after Hezbollah pagers exploded across Lebanon and parts of Syria -- with the Sept. 18 attack resulting in at least three deaths and hundreds more injured, the Guardian reported Sept. 18. 

Israel, Lebanon: Second Round of Explosions Hits Lebanon as Israel Moves Troops to Border

Assessments

Palestinian Territories

A general view shows a session at the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem on March 20, 2023. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

To keep all of its coalition members happy, Israel's government will avoid specifying its conditions for a victory in Gaza and Lebanon, setting the stage for open-ended military campaigns that could embolden extremist Jewish settlers.

The Risks of Israel's Open-Ended Policies in Gaza and Lebanon

A plume of smoke billows following an Israeli air strike above a border town in southern Lebanon on Oct. 7, 2024. 

Economics

While the country may initially come together in the face of Israel's invasion, various Lebanese factions will probably become more critical of Hezbollah as the war wears on, raising the risk of violence between the group and its domestic rivals.

How Long Will Lebanon Rally Behind Hezbollah's Fight Against Israel?

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An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Ethiopia

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Oman

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The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Authorities in Israel's southern city of Gedera assess a damaged school building after a projectile exploded upon impact on Oct. 1, 2024, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. 

Israel will most likely strike a small number of targets inside Iran, but there is a chance it will pursue more escalatory options that would likely invite further Iranian attacks.

Gauging Israel's Options for Responding to Iran's Ballistic Missile Attack

Israeli tanks gather by the Lebanese border on Sept. 30, 2024. 

Israel is trying to seize on the chaos its recent attacks have inflicted on Hezbollah, but no ground operation will firmly and quickly secure southern Lebanon, and could pull Israel into a prolonged and costly campaign.

Assessing Israel's Options for a Ground Invasion in Lebanon

Smoke rises from rubble at the scene of Israeli air strikes in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sept. 27, 2024.

Israel's expanding assassination campaign will compel Hezbollah to escalate its cross-border attacks and could eventually force Iran to intervene to protect its most reliable proxy.

Israel Goes After Hezbollah's Top Leader, Leaving Little Room for Deescalation

A man in Beirut, Lebanon, holds a walkie-talkie after removing its battery on Sept. 18, 2024, during a funeral for people killed when hundreds of paging devices exploded across the country the previous day. 

Few security services are willing and able to replicate Israel's unprecedented assault on Hezbollah's electronics, but many will find ways to tamper with devices for mass surveillance by exploiting complex global supply chains.

Israel's Pager Attack Renews Focus on Supply Chains' Physical Security

Snapshots

Smoke billows from a site targeted by an Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese village of Zaita on Sept. 23, 2024. 

With the erosion of the rules of engagement established after their 2006 war, both sides will likely fight an open-ended conflict without red lines until an eventual settlement, or an Israeli ground operation.

What To Watch For as Israel and Hezbollah Enter Into an Open-Ended Conflict

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Germany

Sri Lanka

The site of an Israeli strike on Sept. 19 in the southern Lebanese border village of Mahmoudiyeh. Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah will continue to intensify in the next week.

Social Issues

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Conflict, the Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Remains of exploded pagers on Sept. 18 in southern Beirut. Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign,

Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign. 

Israel's Electronics Sabotage Signals a More Intense Military Campaign in Lebanon

Lebanon is a small country wedged against the Mediterranean Sea, with Syria to its east and Israel to its south. The country is divided by the western Lebanon Mountains and the eastern Anti-Lebanon Mountains, which also run through Syria. These mountains produce three geographic and climate ranges for the country: hot and dry in the east and mild and wetter in the west, with the fertile Bekaa Valley in the midlands providing much of the country's agriculture. The cluster of mountains itself is friendly to the growth of cedar trees, the country's national icon.    Because of its small size, Lebanon is forced to import much of the food it needs to feed its population. Thus it has long been a center of trade, with coastal cities like Beirut acting as gateways for east-wide trade routes. It's a necessity for Lebanon to keep access to these trade routes. However, because the country is so small, outside powers have found it very easy to exert influence, especially given Lebanon's internal demographic divisions. Foreign powers can often find allies in Lebanon, though they rarely can find enough friendly forces to control the entire country, leading to frequent split governments and regular civil strife.     Lebanon's greatest challenge, therefore, is to keep access to its trade routes while balancing its own divisions, which are manipulated by outside powers. It has not always succeeded, and the country's 1975-1990 civil war is only the latest major conflict that has arisen from these conditions. In the future, Lebanon will continue to struggle with precariously balancing its small size, its divided population and its ambitious neighbors. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Proposes Maximalist Conditions for Diplomatic Settlement With Lebanon

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Drone Attack Kills Four in Haifa Israeli Military Base

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Expands Operations in Lebanon, Risking an Extended Conflict

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Begins Ground Invasion of Lebanon

U.S., Israel, Lebanon: Israel Rejects U.S.-Backed Calls for 21 Day Ceasefire with Hezbollah

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Launches Ballistic Missile Toward Tel Aviv

Israel, Lebanon: Israeli Strike Kills Hezbollah Military Leader in Beirut

Israel, Lebanon: Second Round of Explosions Hits Lebanon as Israel Moves Troops to Border

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