Iran

Israel

Syria

Military & Security

Israeli forces reportedly carried out a ground raid on an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC)-related facility in Masyaf in central Syria on Sept. 8, according to Times of Israel on Sept. 12. 

Israel, Syria: Israeli Ground Troops Used in Raid on IRGC Site

United States

Russia

Politics

Officials with the U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, said they had agreed on Aug. 12 to a Russian-brokered deal to end fighting in eastern Syria with the Syrian government, The National reported on Aug. 13.

Syria: Russia Brokers Deal To End Fighting Between SDF and Government Forces

Energy

The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, launched an unusual assault in eastern Syria, targeting three positions held by pro-government fighters, AP reported on Aug. 12.

Syria: U.S.-Backed Forces Clash With Pro-Government Fighters in Eastern Syria

Syrian government-backed tribal forces crossed the Euphrates River near the al-Omar oil fields in eastern Syria, sparking clashes as the area's U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, conducted operations to dislodge them, AP reported on Aug. 7. 

Syria, Iran, U.S.: Iranian-Backed Militias Attack U.S.-Backed SDF Positions in Syria

Lebanon

Economics

Poverty in Lebanon has tripled to 44% of the population since 2014, leading households to cut back on basic food, medicines and other staples, the World Bank reported on May 23.

Lebanon: World Bank Report Highlights Rising Poverty Amid Political Paralysis

Comoros

Djibouti

Mauritania

Somalia

Sudan

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Libya

Morocco

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Arab leaders began to arrive in Manama, Bahrain, on May 15, for the 33rd Arab League summit that will focus on developing a consensus on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, The National reported the next day.

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

Israel struck a building on the outskirts of Damascus, injuring 8 Syrian soldiers on May 2, Reuters reported May 3. 

Israel, Syria: Israel Strikes Syria for the First Time Since April 1

Iranian-backed Iraqi militants fired five rockets at the Kharab al-Jir U.S. military base in Syria from Zummar, Iraq, Reuters reported on April 21.

Iraq, Syria: Iraqi Militias Carry Out First Attacks on U.S. Forces Since Early February

Assessments

China

Europe

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Columns

On Geopolitics

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Ethiopia

Middle East and North Africa

Turkey

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Remains of exploded pagers on Sept. 18 in southern Beirut. Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign,

Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign. 

Israel's Electronics Sabotage Signals a More Intense Military Campaign in Lebanon

Snapshots

Lebanese soldiers stand guard as an ambulance rushes wounded people to a hospital in Beirut on Sept. 17, 2024, after explosions hit locations in several Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah fighters.

A widespread pager attack against Hezbollah raises tensions between Israel and Lebanon as their border conflict expands.

All Eyes Turn to Israel Following Hezbollah Pager Explosions Across Lebanon and Syria

People watch a televised speech of Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah commemorating the seventh-century killing of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein, in Beirut, Lebanon, on July 17, 2024.

Despite their unified vision, groups within the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance are unlikely to sacrifice their strategic imperatives for one another, leaving them vulnerable to Israeli attacks.

Assessing the Strategic Imperatives of the Iranian-Led 'Axis of Resistance'

An Israeli air force Samson C-130J Super Hercules cargo plane flies over the Israeli coastal city of Netanya toward northern Israel on Aug. 25, 2024, after Israel launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel's recent preemptive strike on Hezbollah reflects an increasing willingness to strike Iran's regional proxies -- and potentially even Iran itself -- to interdict their impending attacks, raising the risk of a larger regional war.

As It Awaits Iran's Retaliation, Israel Mulls More Preemptive Strikes

Turkish and Syrian flags wave above Syria's al-Salameh border crossing with Turkey on Aug. 27, 2023. 

The two countries will take steps to restore their diplomatic and economic ties, but competing security imperatives will make full-scale normalization difficult. 

Evaluating the Prospects of Turkey-Syria Normalization

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

Emergency and security personnel search rubble at the site of an April 1, 2024, strike on the Iranian Consulate in Syria's capital of Damascus. Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran's Response to Israel's Audacious Damascus Strike Will Not Deter Escalation

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant attend a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv on Oct. 28, 2023, amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. 

Israeli assassinations of Hamas officials abroad would likely provoke more antisemitism and rebukes from Western governments, and maintain the risk of regional escalation with Iranian proxies and potentially Iran itself.

The Potential Ramifications of Israel's Alleged Campaign to Kill Hamas Leaders

<p>Modern Syria is located along the eastern Mediterranean Sea, bordering Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq. Syria&rsquo;s main geographic challenge is uniting its diverse ethnic groups under one domestic power. This is the result of mountainous terrain and ethnic cores that contradict the state&rsquo;s current borders. Syria&rsquo;s population is composed of Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians, among others. The traditional core of Syria&#39;s ruling Alawite minority sits on the northern coastal plain to the west of the Jabal an Nusayriya mountains and to the north of the Anti-Lebanon mountains. Between these two ranges, the Homs Gap has often been the point of invasions from the Mediterranean Sea. The interior region is dominated by the majority Sunni Arab peoples. The Syrian Desert divides this area into two competing regions with strong local identities. The first, Damascus, is the historical capital and the modern seat of power for the Alawites. The other, Aleppo, is situated in the agricultural heartlands of the Aleppo plateau. The Euphrates river divides this plateau from the much more arid Jazirah plateau and allows for irrigation in an otherwise desert region. Syria&rsquo;s modern boundaries fall short of the historical concept of Greater Syria&mdash;spanning from Lebanon to the west and Jordan and Israel to the south. Its current borders were set by the League of Nations&#39; French Mandate, following the dismantling of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Lebanon, especially Beirut, has always been important to Syria because of its trade ports and access to Mediterranean markets. Syria&rsquo;s recent civil unrest is the latest example of its geographic challenge. Maintaining unity remains difficult so long as its current boundaries continue to overlap regional and ethnic fault lines.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Syria: Israeli Ground Troops Used in Raid on IRGC Site

Syria: Russia Brokers Deal To End Fighting Between SDF and Government Forces

Syria: U.S.-Backed Forces Clash With Pro-Government Fighters in Eastern Syria

Syria, Iran, U.S.: Iranian-Backed Militias Attack U.S.-Backed SDF Positions in Syria

Lebanon: World Bank Report Highlights Rising Poverty Amid Political Paralysis

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

Israel, Syria: Israel Strikes Syria for the First Time Since April 1

Iraq, Syria: Iraqi Militias Carry Out First Attacks on U.S. Forces Since Early February

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