<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

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Will the cease-fire between the two countries last?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India-Pakistan Relations

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India's evolving trade strategy aims to boost key exports while protecting sensitive sectors, reflecting a blend of liberalization and long-standing protectionist instincts.

The Geopolitics of Trade: India

The Bombay Stock Exchange building May 7 in Mumbai, India. If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

The Economic Case for an India-Pakistan Ceasefire

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Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Soldiers and onlookers inspect the debris of a mosque damaged by Indian strikes in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. 

While a full-scale conflict remains unlikely, escalating tensions will increase security risks in both countries, including travel and business disruptions, nationalist protests, potential militant attacks, and increased cyber threat activity.

India's Retaliation for Kashmir Attack Will Provoke a Pakistani Response

An Indian paramilitary trooper patrols a market area in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, in India-held Kashmir, on April 29, 2025. 

India will likely soon launch limited military strikes against Pakistan in retaliation for the deadly April 22 Kashmir attack, raising the risk of escalation despite both sides' desire to avoid a full-scale war.

The Drivers and Constraints to a Wider India-Pakistan Conflict

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Indian soldiers stand guard atop their vehicle in Srinagar, India, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Pakistan-India Tensions, Canadian Elections and Pope Francis' Funeral

U.S.-Iran Relations

Will India be able to stay on track for its growth goals?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India's Economy

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Bangladesh's financial adviser unveiled a 7.9 trillion taka ($64.96 billion) national budget that aims to revive the economy while reducing the fiscal deficit to 3.6% of GDP from the current 4.6%, Bloomberg reported on June 2.

Bangladesh: Government Unveils Budget, Tribunal To Try Ousted Prime Minister, Banned Party Regains Status

Government employees protesting Bangladesh's Public Service (Amendment) Ordinance, 2025, which allows dismissal without investigation for certain offenses, suspended their protest after officials promised to review the law, The Daily Star reported on May 27.

Bangladesh: Growing Protests Pressure Interim Government

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The Afghan Taliban's acting commerce minister said the group is talking to Russia and China about the possibility of using local currencies to settle hundreds of millions of dollars worth of trade transactions, Reuters reported May 23.

Afghanistan: Taliban Talking to Russia, China on Using Local Currencies to Settle Trade Transactions

India's Home Minister Amit Shah announced on May 21 that Indian security forces earlier the same day killed Communist Party of India (Maoist) General Secretary Nambala Keshava Rao alongside 26 other Maoist rebels during an operation in the central state of Chhattisgarh, making Rao the highest-ranking Maoist killed by Indian forces in decades, the Financial Times reported May 21.

India: Government Announces Killing of Top Maoist Leader

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ruled out dialogue or trade with Islamabad and pledged to make Pakistan's military and economy "pay a heavy price" for any aggression on Indian soil, Bloomberg reported May 22.

India, Pakistan: Modi Rules Out Talks and Trade With Islamabad, Pledges To Withhold Water

Pakistan's military on May 21 accused India of "plann[ing] and orchestrat[ing]" a suicide bombing earlier the same day that targeted children on their way to a military-run school in Pakistan's restive southwestern province, killing some five people and wounding 38 others, AP reported on May 21.

Pakistan, India: Islamabad Claims Suicide Bombing Targeting Schoolchildren Had Links to India

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India is reportedly exploring ways to significantly boost its use of water from a key river system that sustains agriculture in Pakistan, Reuters reported on May 16.

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

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Bangladesh: Government Unveils Budget, Tribunal To Try Ousted Prime Minister, Banned Party Regains Status

Bangladesh: Growing Protests Pressure Interim Government

Afghanistan: Taliban Talking to Russia, China on Using Local Currencies to Settle Trade Transactions

India: Government Announces Killing of Top Maoist Leader

India, Pakistan: Modi Rules Out Talks and Trade With Islamabad, Pledges To Withhold Water

Pakistan, India: Islamabad Claims Suicide Bombing Targeting Schoolchildren Had Links to India

India, Pakistan: New Project on Indus River Could Sharply Reduce Water Flow to Pakistan

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