Burkina Faso

Chad

Global Elections

A Crude Recovery

Benin

Energy

What Happened: Recall petitions were filed against 12 more lawmakers from the opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT) — which favors stronger ties to China — on the afternoon of Feb. 10, bringing the total number of KMT legislators up for recall votes to 32, Taipei Times reported Feb. 10. Meanwhile, campaigners are also gathering signatures for recall petitions against six other KMT legislators, leaving just one elected KMT lawmaker not yet facing a recall petition. In response, KMT campaigners have also submitted recall petitions against 13 Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers.



SITREP: Taiwan: Flurry of Recall Votes May Curb China-Friendly Opposition's Strength | 12: 14

The Civil War in Yemen

Trade Profiles

Russia

Military & Security

Russian private military company Bear Brigade confirmed that it had departed from Burkina Faso after arriving in the country in May, Le Monde reported on Aug. 29.

Russia, Burkina Faso: Russian PMC 'Bear Brigade' Exits Burkina Faso

Togo

Turkey

Al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, killed at least 12 Togolese soldiers at a military outpost near the locality of Kpekankandi in Togo's northern Savanes region, LSI Africa reported on July 21.

Togo: Al Qaeda Affiliate Launches Large-Scale Attack on Northern Military Outpost 

Politics

Social Issues

Burkina Faso's military junta adopted an amended family code that prohibits and punishes homosexuality, Reuters reported on July 11.

Burkina Faso: Junta Adopts Draft Law To Criminalize Homosexuality

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Niger

France

Economics

Burkinabe junta leader Ibrahim Traore accused Cote d'Ivoire and Benin of attempting to destabilize Burkina Faso in coordination with France, Le Monde reported on July 11.

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso signed a trilateral treaty establishing the Confederation of Sahelian States, or CSS, on July 6, Radio France Internationale reported on July 8.

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Sign Confederation Treaty, Confirm Departure From ECOWAS 

Burkina Faso's junta-controlled national conference on the transition adopted a new charter extending military rule until July 2029, the Financial Times reported on May 26. 

Burkina Faso: Junta Extends Military Rule Until 2029

Turkish private military company SADAT entered talks with an unnamed Sahelian state to strengthen the security of the country's presidential palace, Radio France Internationale reported on May 21.

Sahel: Turkish Private Military Company SADAT Expanding Operations in the Sahel

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Iran

Forecasts

Cyber

The Importance of Mexico

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

Stag - 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast  updated

The Civil War in Libya

Personal Security

Assessments

Ghana

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a joint venture between artificial intelligence company OpenAI, internet services company SoftBank and computer technology company Oracle to invest $100 billion in computing infrastructure to power AI innovation, The New York Times reported on Jan. 21. The venture, titled Stargate, will aim to invest as much as $500 billion over the next four years and will begin with 10 data centers already under construction in Texas.changed

U.S.: Project Stargate To Invest $500B in AI Over Next Four Years : Staging article changed

Media

Graphics

 Geopolitics Applied Geopolitics: Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of Troops in Conflict

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Assessment before update

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Kenya

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Mauritania

Nigeria

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

Columns

On Geopolitics

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Snapshots

Gabon

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Ibrahim Traore, Burkina Faso's interim president, attends a ceremony in Ouagadougou on Oct. 15, 2022.

The junta's failure to maintain stability and resolve underlying grievances will raise the risk of future coups and provide possible inroads for more Russian influence.

What an Alleged Coup Attempt Means for Burkina Faso's Stability

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

SITREP: Taiwan: Flurry of Recall Votes May Curb China-Friendly Opposition's Strength | 12: 14

Russia, Burkina Faso: Russian PMC 'Bear Brigade' Exits Burkina Faso

Togo: Al Qaeda Affiliate Launches Large-Scale Attack on Northern Military Outpost

Burkina Faso: Junta Adopts Draft Law To Criminalize Homosexuality

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Sign Confederation Treaty, Confirm Departure From ECOWAS

Burkina Faso: Junta Extends Military Rule Until 2029

Sahel: Turkish Private Military Company SADAT Expanding Operations in the Sahel

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