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Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso formally notified the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, of their intention to withdraw from the regional bloc, Jeune Afrique reported on Jan. 30.

Sahel: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso Send Formal Notification of Exit From ECOWAS 

Sub-Saharan Africa

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

The Gambia has become the latest country to ratify the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AFCFTA), African Business Magazine reported April 2.

Gambia: Country Ratifies Africa-Wide Free Trade Agreement

Security

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Military & Security

Gambians will vote in local elections on April 12, the Vanguard African Foundation announced via Twitter on April 11. 

Gambia: Citizens To Vote In Local Elections April 12

United States

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U.S. President Donald Trump's administration imposed sanctions on Myanmar general Maung Maung Soe and twelve others for alleged human rights abuses, ABC News reported Dec. 21. 

U.S.: Washington Sanctions Myanmar General, Others

East African Integration

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) voted on June 5 to extend the organization's military presence in Gambia for another year, Reuters reported. 

Gambia: ECOWAS Extends Troop Deployment

Terrorism and Security

Military

Gambian President Adama Barrow will reverse his country's withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC), a high-ranking EU official said Feb. 9, AP reported. 

Gambia: New President Will Reverse Withdrawal From ICC

Gambia's newly elected president, Adama Barrow, is set to return to the country Jan. 25, following a contentious leadership transition that included an invasion by regional troops and ended with his predecessor going into exile, AP reported.

Gambia: New President Set To Return Home

Former Gambian President Yahya Jammeh has left the country, BBC reported Jan. 22.

Gambia: Former President Leaves Country

Quarterly

Forecasts

The quarter will also feature impactful elections, including presidential and general elections in Turkey that could trigger a constitutional crisis; regional elections in Spain that could see the nationalist right performing strongly; legislative elections in India that will delay the implementation of controversial economic reforms; and contentious elections to appoint the members of a council that will draft Chile's next constitution. Finally, political and security volatility will be high in key emerging economies such as Brazil, where political polarization will slow the new government's policy agenda; Nigeria, where the persistent risk of social unrest will complicate the new president's push to reform the economy; and Pakistan, where political volatility and a persistent economic crisis will prolong policy uncertainty and keep a high risk of social unrest.

Sectioned Content: 2023 Second-Quarter Forecast

Assessments

How Gambia's Strongman Fell From Power

Former President Yahya Jammeh made a couple of critical missteps in his efforts to cling to his office.

Snapshots

Guinea

Mauritania

So far, the incoming forces have met little resistance on their way to the country's capital.

Gambia: Senegalese, Nigerian Troops Invade To Unseat President

Thousands flee the country as the president overstays his term.

Gambia: Presidential Term Extended, Concerns Over Instability Mount

Media

Videos

Stratfor Africa Analyst Stephen Rakowksi discusses Gambia's disputed presidential election and what it portends for the political stability of West Africa.

Gambia's Contentious Presidential Election

Reflections

West Africa Contemplates a Gambian Conundrum

The defeated president's refusal to step aside presents a sticky problem for the region.

West Africa Considers Action in Gambia

Time is not on the Side of Gambia’s Embattled President

President Yahyah Jammeh is trying to nullify his Dec. 1 electoral defeat, but will find it harder and harder to cling on.

The Clock Ticks for Gambia’s President

Gambian President Yahya Jammeh

Governments -- even those led by a strongman -- are never a one-man show.

The Politics of Giving Up Power in Gambia

El Salvador

Panama

China

Japan

Taiwan

China Puts the Squeeze on Taiwan

China in Transition

With an uncooperative administration in Taipei, Beijing is working to isolate the island.

Burundi

Rwanda

South Africa

Even those countries that do not fear prosecution see little strategic benefit in remaining members of the institution.

The Difficulties of North African Reform

The ICC, which has operated out of The Hague since 2002, is a U.N. body that can prosecute individuals who have committed war crimes, genocide and other crimes against humanity. Its jurisdiction covers places where recognized governments are unwilling or unable to carry out judicial processes themselves.

 Why Africa Is Turning Its Back on the International Criminal Court

China, Taiwan and the Endless Battle for Recognition

China has decided to re-establish diplomatic ties with one-time Taiwan ally Gambia -- a conspicuous warning to Taipei’s new, potentially uncooperative ruling party.

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Graphics

Paris Agreement Emphasizes Shift Away From Oil

The pace of the transition will be decided by how quickly new technologies reach the developing world.

Energy

Gambia is a tiny West African country on the Atlantic coast which is almost completely surrounded by Senegal. Modern-day Gambia was created by competition between the British and French empires. British explorers claimed both sides of the Gambia river that gives the country its name, carving a wedge between French positions at the Senegal and Casamance rivers to the north and south. Over time, however, British ambitions in West Africa were halted by French expansion into the hinterland, giving Gambia its unique geography.     Gambia's chief geographic challenge is that it is almost entirely encircled by its much larger neighbor, Senegal. This has pushed successive Gambian leaders to make managing relations with Senegal a key focus of foreign policy, with varying degrees of success. Gambian leaders have, for example attempted to gain leverage over Senegal by supporting Casamance rebels. For many decades, insurgents in the Casamance region in the Senegal's extreme south have pushed for secession. Over the years, Gambia's ties to these secessionists have provoked interventions or reactions from Senegal.     Gambia's uncomfortably cozy relationship with Senegal was most recently on display in 2016, when the former strongman of Gambia, Yahya Jammeh, lost the presidential election. Jammeh tried to renege on the election but Senegal sensed an opportunity to install a more democratic, less hostile Gambian government. After a Senegalese and West African intervention force intervened, Jammeh fled the country. After years of isolation and rule from strongmen, Gambia has struggled to become a multiparty democracy. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Sahel: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso Send Formal Notification of Exit From ECOWAS

Gambia: Country Ratifies Africa-Wide Free Trade Agreement

Gambia: Citizens To Vote In Local Elections April 12

U.S.: Washington Sanctions Myanmar General, Others

Gambia: ECOWAS Extends Troop Deployment

Gambia: New President Will Reverse Withdrawal From ICC

Gambia: New President Set To Return Home

Gambia: Former President Leaves Country

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