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Police DNA tests confirmed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed on Oct. 16, The Times of Israel reported on Oct. 17.

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Leader's Death Broaches Question of Succession

United States

The White House sent a letter to the Israeli government on Oct. 13 saying that Israel risks losing U.S. military aid due to legal restrictions unless Israel improves the humanitarian conditions in Gaza in 30 days, Axios reported on Oct. 15.

Israel, U.S.: Poor Humanitarian Conditions in Gaza Endanger U.S. Military Aid for Israel

Iran

The U.S. Pentagon confirmed it is sending Israel a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, along with 100 troops to operate the system, to help defend the country following Iran's Oct. 1 ballistic missile barrage and amid continued Hezbollah attacks, the BBC reported Oct. 14.

Israel: U.S. To Send THAAD Anti-Missile System and Troops To Operate It

Israel proposed a new outline for the end of the war in Gaza that would see all hostages released at once, an end to the fighting in Gaza, the exile of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and his associates, the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, the demilitarization of the strip, and a new government for Gaza, The Times of Israel reported on Sept 19.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Proposes New Gaza Cease-Fire Outline, but Constraints Remain

Lebanon

Israel's War Cabinet added the safe return of civilians to northern Israel as a formal war goal, adding to the existing goals of defeating the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza and replacing the group with a new government, Reuters reported on Sept. 17. 

Israel: War Cabinet To Prioritize Northern Security Amid Possible Replacement of Defense Minister

Jordan

A Jordanian truck driver opened fire at the Allenby Bridge border crossing between Jordan and Israel on Sept. 8, killing three Israeli civilians before Israeli security forces shot him dead, Reuters reported the same day.

Jordan, Israel: Jordanian Gunman Kills Three Israeli Civilians at Border Crossing

Germany

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom suspended 30 of its 350 arms export licenses to Israel, effective immediately, due to risks that Israel could use the weapons in violation of international humanitarian law, Reuters reported on Sept. 2. 

U.K., Israel: London Partially Suspends Arms Export Licenses to Israel

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced that it had received a ''preliminary commitment'' from Israel for temporary, localized humanitarian pauses in fighting in Gaza to allow for polio vaccinations after the war-torn enclave reported its first confirmed case of the deadly virus in 25 years, Al Jazeera reported Aug. 29.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Agrees to Temporary Pauses in Fighting in Gaza for Polio Vaccine Campaign

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Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

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People are reflected in a window displaying a poster of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Palestinian camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8, 2024, in Beirut, Lebanon. 

Sinwar's assassination sets Hamas on the path of succession once more, opening the door to policy change and factionalism.

What Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar's Death Means for the Gaza War

A general view shows a session at the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem on March 20, 2023. 

To keep all of its coalition members happy, Israel's government will avoid specifying its conditions for a victory in Gaza and Lebanon, setting the stage for open-ended military campaigns that could embolden extremist Jewish settlers.

The Risks of Israel's Open-Ended Policies in Gaza and Lebanon

A plume of smoke billows following an Israeli air strike above a border town in southern Lebanon on Oct. 7, 2024. 

While the country may initially come together in the face of Israel's invasion, various Lebanese factions will probably become more critical of Hezbollah as the war wears on, raising the risk of violence between the group and its domestic rivals.

How Long Will Lebanon Rally Behind Hezbollah's Fight Against Israel?

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An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

U.S.-Iran Relations

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A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Authorities in Israel's southern city of Gedera assess a damaged school building after a projectile exploded upon impact on Oct. 1, 2024, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. 

Israel will most likely strike a small number of targets inside Iran, but there is a chance it will pursue more escalatory options that would likely invite further Iranian attacks.

Gauging Israel's Options for Responding to Iran's Ballistic Missile Attack

Smoke rises from rubble at the scene of Israeli air strikes in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sept. 27, 2024.

Israel's expanding assassination campaign will compel Hezbollah to escalate its cross-border attacks and could eventually force Iran to intervene to protect its most reliable proxy.

Israel Goes After Hezbollah's Top Leader, Leaving Little Room for Deescalation

Snapshots

Smoke billows from a site targeted by an Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese village of Zaita on Sept. 23, 2024. 

With the erosion of the rules of engagement established after their 2006 war, both sides will likely fight an open-ended conflict without red lines until an eventual settlement, or an Israeli ground operation.

What To Watch For as Israel and Hezbollah Enter Into an Open-Ended Conflict

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The site of an Israeli strike on Sept. 19 in the southern Lebanese border village of Mahmoudiyeh. Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah will continue to intensify in the next week.

Social Issues

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Conflict, the Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Remains of exploded pagers on Sept. 18 in southern Beirut. Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign,

Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Leader's Death Broaches Question of Succession

Israel, U.S.: Poor Humanitarian Conditions in Gaza Endanger U.S. Military Aid for Israel

Israel: U.S. To Send THAAD Anti-Missile System and Troops To Operate It

Israel, Gaza: Israel Proposes New Gaza Cease-Fire Outline, but Constraints Remain

Israel: War Cabinet To Prioritize Northern Security Amid Possible Replacement of Defense Minister

Jordan, Israel: Jordanian Gunman Kills Three Israeli Civilians at Border Crossing

U.K., Israel: London Partially Suspends Arms Export Licenses to Israel

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Agrees to Temporary Pauses in Fighting in Gaza for Polio Vaccine Campaign

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