Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 23, 2025

Snapshots

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

Military & Security

Politics

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Australia

China

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump speak to reporters during a bilateral meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House on Oct. 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump and Albanese agreed to tighten defense and supply chain integration as a way to reduce their countries' reliance on China, but industrial bottlenecks mean implementation will be slow.

U.S.-Australia Leadership Summit Yields Critical Minerals Pact, AUKUS Reaffirmation

Japan

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Economics

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Tanzania

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party reacts on stage during a rally in Dar es Salaam on Aug. 28, 2025, to officially launch the CCM's campaign ahead of the Tanzanian general election. 

Energy

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is highly likely to be reelected in the Oct. 29 ballot, which is unlikely to turn violent but could portend wider governance challenges in the medium term.

Previewing Tanzania's General Elections

Global Elections

Venezuela

A poster displaying a photo of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seen as members of the Bolivarian Armed Forces take part in a military exercise in Caracas on Sept. 20, 2025. 

The U.S. will most likely conduct kinetic attacks on cartel sites in Venezuela over the next three to six months. Other scenarios, ranging from a negotiated settlement to a decapitation strike on Maduro, are comparatively less likely.

U.S. Confrontation With Venezuela: Potential Scenarios

Iran

Syria

Turkey

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, hold a meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow on Oct.15, 2025. 

Syria's outreach to Russia could lead to diversified economic and security ties, help de-escalate tensions between Russia and Turkey, and eventually facilitate small steps toward Syria's rapprochement with Iran.

Syria-Russia Reapproachment Reinforces Damascus's Non-Confrontationalism

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) attends a lunch meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump (R) at the White House on Oct. 17, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump suggest a significant U.S. pivot toward a negotiated settlement in Ukraine that prioritizes freezing the conflict and may involve territorial concessions favorable to Moscow.

Trump Signals Shift Toward Russian Position on Ukraine Ahead of Putin Meeting

Israel

Palestinian Territories

U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. Delegations from the United States and Russia, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov, respectively, will meet this week to resume conversations about their countries' bilateral relationship and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Russian Delegations Meet, a Still-Fragile Hamas-Israel Ceasefire 

Media

Podcasts

On Oct. 4, conservative candidate and former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi won the leadership election of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, clearing the way for her to become Japan's next prime minister after a Diet vote tentatively scheduled for mid-October.

Essential Geopolitics: Who Will Be Japan's Next Prime Minister?

Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, and other senior government members and deputies attend the second plenary session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on March 8, 2025, in Beijing, China.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

The key political meeting will fill vacant Party seats and update economic and security goals, offering insights into China's policy priorities and the trajectory of Xi's political purges for the next five years. 

What To Watch for During China's Fourth Plenum

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Latest

Netherlands

A photograph taken on Oct. 10, 2025, shows Dutch election posters ahead of the Netherlands' Oct. 29 elections. 

Political fragmentation points toward complex negotiations and an ideologically unstable coalition, most likely led by either centrists or the far right.

Netherlands Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025. 

The U.S. will leverage permanent sanctions relief to pressure Syria to finalize a security pact with Israel, but the Kurds will resist integrating with President Ahmad al-Sharaa's government. 

U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag

Argentina

Argentina's flag flutters at the Congress.

A weak result for the government is likely to trigger a significant peso devaluation and heightened political instability, effectively stalling the administration's pro-business legislative agenda.


The Stakes for Javier Milei in Argentina's Midterm Elections

Europe

The Geopolitics of Trade

The recalibration of the European Union's sustainability framework will ease near-term compliance burdens and costs for businesses but preserve long-term uncertainty.

The Geopolitics of Trade: EU Steps Back From Ambitious Environmental Policies

Canada

India

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Madagascar

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

North Korea

Vietnam

Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un participate in a ceremony at the Pyongyang Sports Palace on Oct. 9, 2025, during Lam's three-day official visit to North Korea.

To Lam's visit injects fresh diplomatic energy into the long-stalled relationship with North Korea and fits into Pyongyang's gradual reemergence as an active player in regional diplomacy.

Vietnam's Lam Extends Diplomatic Balancing Act With Rare North Korea Visit

Bolivia

Supporters of Bolivia's presidential candidate for the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), Rodrigo Paz, listen to him speak during a campaign rally in El Alto, Bolivia, on Sept. 30, 2025. 

With two right-wing candidates facing off in the Oct. 19 runoff, Bolivia is set for a significant policy shift toward austerity at home and a pro-Western foreign policy.

Bolivia Set for Swing to Right in Presidential Runoff Vote

Peru

Then-Peruvian President Dina Boluarte arrives to deliver her address to the nation on Peru's Independence Day at the National Congress in Lima on July 28, 2025.

The interim government will struggle to quickly reduce crime levels and pass major structural reforms, while the upcoming presidential election will fuel policy uncertainty due to the crowded field of candidates.

Boluarte's Impeachment Unlikely To Improve Peru's Political and Security Climate

Egypt

Qatar

People react at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on Oct. 9, 2025, following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.

Violence in Gaza will almost certainly decrease as both Israel and Hamas are pressured to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, keeping the truce intact in the coming days and possibly weeks.

After Two Years of War, a Permanent Gaza Ceasefire?

Columns

On Geopolitics

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

On Security

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Angola

Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Cabo Verde

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Cyber

The Geopolitics of Water

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

The recent deadly clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan will have a high risk of recurring over the coming weeks, while the two countries' entrenched disputes will challenge international efforts to prevent their re-emergence in the coming months and probably beyond.

stag test analysis wv and ent - Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

Stag - Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Oct. 12 that Chinese "President Xi [Jinping] just had a bad moment," in reference to China's Oct. 9 expansion of rare earth export curbs, and that "The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it."

Stag U.S., China: U.S. Open to De-escalation, But Deal Terms Growing More Contentious

Afghanistan

Intense clashes erupted between Afghan Taliban fighters and Pakistani security forces along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border late on Oct. 11, days after the Taliban accused Pakistan of carrying out airstrikes in Afghanistan, AP reported on Oct. 12.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan's Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev announced that construction of the Horadiz-Agbend railway and highway, key links in the North-South and Araz transport corridors, will be completed by 2026, Azerbaijan State News Agency reported on Oct. 13.

Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran: Azerbaijan Positions Itself as Core of Russia-Iran Logistics Network

The Kremlin issued unusually sharp warnings about the potential U.S. supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, Reuters reported on Oct. 12.

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Kremlin Issues Escalation Threats Over Potential Tomahawk Delivery

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Oct. 12 that Chinese "President Xi [Jinping] just had a bad moment," in reference to China's Oct. 9 expansion of rare earth export curbs, and that "The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it." 

U.S., China: U.S. Open to De-escalation, But Deal Terms Growing More Contentious

The Ivorian opposition coalition Common Front called for daily nonviolent demonstrations against the exclusion of key opposition figures from the Oct. 25 presidential election, despite a government ban on protests, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 12.

Cote d'Ivoire: Security Forces Arrest Over 200 Amid Calls for Daily Protests Despite Government Ban

Cameroon held a presidential election on Oct. 12 that was broadly peaceful in much of the country but saw clashes erupt between supporters of opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary and security forces in the northern city of Garoua, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 13. 

Cameroon: Ballot-Counting for Presidential Election Begins as Clashes Erupt in the North

France

The French military exfiltrated Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina from Madagascar on Oct. 12, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 13.

Madagascar: France Exfiltrates President After Army Corps Defects in Support of Gen Z Protesters

Palestinians on Oct. 10 on Al-Rashid road headed toward Gaza City. U.S. President Donald Trump said he might visit the Middle East just as 20 hostages are meant to be released by Hamas after surviving two years in captivity as the White House pushes for the solidification of a frail ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Tries To Solidify the Gaza Ceasefire, a Presidential Vote in Cameroon

Germany

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

The flag of Afghanistan sits on the Afghan embassy in Moscow on July 4, 2025. 

As Afghanistan's neighbors deepen ties with the Taliban and Western states remain cautious, a widening diplomatic divide threatens to complicate efforts to address the country's worsening crises and regional security risks.

The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability

Cambodia

Thailand

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (center) speaks during a press conference next to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet (left) and Thailand's acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai (right) in Putrajaya, Malaysia, on July 28, 2025. 

While the truce may hold in the short to medium term, unresolved disputes and political pressures sustain the risk of future clashes, with the next round likely to be even deadlier.

Gauging the Stability of the Thailand-Cambodia Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to sign the GENIUS Act in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 18, 2025. 

The United States has passed its first major federal cryptocurrency law, boosting institutional interest, but broader public adoption remains constrained by regulatory gaps and ongoing risks.

Cryptocurrency Legislation Advances, Sets New Course for U.S. Cryptocurrency Landscape

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 31, 2025

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a press conference at the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 7, 2025. 

While most of Brazil's main exports are exempt, the additional U.S. tariffs -- along with Brazil's impending economic retaliation and the likely arrest of former President Bolsonaro -- will further strain bilateral ties.

Netherlands Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Stag - Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran: Azerbaijan Positions Itself as Core of Russia-Iran Logistics Network

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Kremlin Issues Escalation Threats Over Potential Tomahawk Delivery

U.S., China: U.S. Open to De-escalation, But Deal Terms Growing More Contentious

Cote d'Ivoire: Security Forces Arrest Over 200 Amid Calls for Daily Protests Despite Government Ban

Cameroon: Ballot-Counting for Presidential Election Begins as Clashes Erupt in the North

Madagascar: France Exfiltrates President After Army Corps Defects in Support of Gen Z Protesters

China, Philippines: Maritime Forces Clash in South China Sea

Australia: Canberra Weighs Critical Minerals Reserve Ahead of U.S. Talks

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