Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 24, 2025

Media

Angola

Podcasts

Environment, Science & Technology

How have Gulf Arab states' positions on the Israel-Iran conflict evolved?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Gulf-Iranian Relations stag

Benin

Burkina Faso

Energy

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Gulf-Iranian Relations

Global Elections

Bahrain

Iran

Israel

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Politics

Snapshots

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba addresses the media at the vote counting center in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo on July 20, 2025.

Prime Minister Ishiba's days are likely numbered following his party's poor electoral performance, which will worsen policy gridlock and potentially weaken Tokyo's position in trade talks with Washington.

LDP's Defeat in Japan's Upper House Elections Will Stoke Political Instability

Europe

Flags of EU countries are seen outside the European Parliament building in Brussels, Belgium, on April 5, 2025.

Economics

The proposed budget prioritizes competitiveness, defense and strategic autonomy, but it will face significant internal resistance regarding revenue sources, spending cuts and greater centralization.

Reviewing the 2028-2034 EU Budget: New Priorities and Anticipated Pushback

South Africa

China

Philippines

 The European Union and China will hold a high-level leaders' summit July 24 in Beijing, marking the 50th anniversary of Chinese-EU diplomatic relations.

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-China Summit, South Africa's Budget Vote

U.S.-China Relations

What are the key implications of the possible election outcomes?

Essential Geopolitics: Japan's Upper House Parliament Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Euro banknotes lie atop U.S. dollar banknotes.

Global Trade

The dollar's depreciation against the euro will likely persist due to U.S. trade and fiscal policy uncertainty, which will hurt European exports but also reduce the risk of destabilizing U.S. financial policies.

Making Sense of Dollar Weakness and Euro Strength

Columns

On Geopolitics

Syria

Turkey

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Indonesia

Containers are unloaded from a ship at a terminal of Tanjung Priok Port, the main seaport in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

In exchange for a lower U.S. tariff rate, Indonesia accepted significant concessions, including purchasing commitments and regulatory changes, that risk limiting its long-term autonomy and industrial policy goals.

To Avoid Steeper Tariffs, Indonesia Reaches High-Stakes Trade Deal With the U.S.

Latest

South Korea

Taiwan

A photo taken on Feb. 21, 2025, shows Subaru vehicles bound for shipment at a port in Yokohama, Japan. 

The deal is a win for Japan's economy and its ruling party, but it may hasten Prime Minister Ishiba's exit. It will also help South Korea and Taiwan secure their own U.S. trade deals.

U.S. Trade Deal Is a Mixed Victory for Japan, a Template for Regional Partners

Ukraine

Russia

A protester holds a Ukrainian flag in downtown Kyiv on July 22, 2025, during a demonstration calling for President Volodymyr Zelensky to veto a law that reduces the powers of Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A new law placing Ukraine's two anti-corruption agencies under executive control raises the risk of further protests that could destabilize Zelensky's government and undermine its war effort.

In Ukraine, a Controversial Law Fuels Protests and Corruption Concerns

Canada

A worker positions a robotic underwater vehicle that can be remotely operated to harvest mineral deposits in the deep ocean, after conducting tests in a lake in Collingwood, Ontario, on May 1, 2025.

Recent U.S. actions will likely accelerate commercial seabed mining operations in certain resource-rich waters around the world, despite international regulatory hurdles and ongoing environmental concerns.

Deep-Sea Mining: Opportunities, Risks and the Path to Commercial Extraction

Egypt

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly (center right) meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang (center left) in Cairo on July 10, 2025.

In the coming years, Egypt will deepen its economic ties with China via increased trade and investment, while simultaneously maintaining its military alliance with the U.S. to address regional security concerns.

Egypt Navigates Its Needs for Chinese Investment and U.S. Military Support

Iraq

The sun sets behind electrical grids in the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah on Jan. 3, 2021. 

Power outages will likely worsen this summer amid Iraq's inability to meet surging demand and reliance on unreliable Iranian gas supplies, raising the risk of larger and potentially more violent protests.

Iraq's Worsening Electricity Crisis Risks Fueling Bigger Protests

Cameroon

Cameroon President Paul Biya (L) and his wife Chantal Biya react during a parade marking the 51st celebration of Unity Day in Yaounde on May 20, 2023.

Cracks in the ruling coalition risk fueling unrest and political instability as 92-year-old President Biya seeks an eighth term in the October election. 

Amid Growing Defections, Cameroon's Aging President Doubles Down With a Reelection Bid

A Ukrainian soldier works on an AN/TWQ-1 Avenger anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

Despite Trump's impatience with Russia's failure to de-escalate in Ukraine, the White House is highly unlikely to dramatically ramp up pressure in a way that significantly alters the Kremlin's calculus.

What Trump's Growing Frustration With Russia Means for U.S. Policy

France

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer (L) and French President Emmanuel Macron hold a press conference on July 10, 2025, in London.

The series of agreements will deepen cooperation between Europe's two nuclear powers at a time of strategic flux and institutional fragmentation across the Continent.

New U.K.-France Defense Deals Mark a Step Toward a European Nuclear Deterrent

Lithuania

Germany

Poland

A newly installed sign pointing to Schengen transfer flights is pictured next to EU and Romanian flags on March 31, 2024. 

Poland's move to reimpose border checks to curb irregular migration from Germany and Lithuania highlights a greater trend that risks entrenching uncertainty for businesses and travelers in the EU's passport-free area.

New Polish Border Controls Bring Europe's Schengen Area Back Into Question

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Forecast Webcast

Science & Technology

Forecast Webcast created from Drupal

Essential Geopolitics: Japan's Upper Stag Podcast

Botswana

Burundi

Lens Analysis Data Test analysis 23 july 2025Lens Analysis Data Test analysis 23 july 2025

Sitrep Data 

Reflections

Test analysis 23 july 2025

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Quarterly

Forecasts

The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast Stag

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 17, 2025

Kenya

A demonstrator holds a Kenyan flag on a street in Nairobi, Kenya, during a pro-democracy protest on July 7, 2025. 

Growing anger over Ruto's economic policies and crackdown on dissent will hinder his efforts to reduce Kenya's fiscal deficit and portend recurring bouts of violent and disruptive protests.

No End in Sight to Kenya's Cycle of Deadly Protests

Asia-Pacific

Diplomats attend the 32nd Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum during the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur on July 11, 2025. 

Chinese, Russian and U.S. participation in the summit shows that the Southeast Asian bloc will remain a key venue for diplomatic hedging and potential great power friction in the years ahead.

ASEAN Meeting Provides an Arena for Multipolar Competition

Bangladesh

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund headquarters is seen in Washington, D.C.

While Bangladesh is making progress in its IMF program, risks persist, including political uncertainty, low foreign exchange reserves and high U.S. tariffs on its vital garment sector.

Bangladesh's Economic Outlook: Progress and Persistent Challenges

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

Cyber

Following the conclusion of the long-anticipated "crypto week," the U.S. House of Representatives celebrated a major legislative victory on July 17 with the passage of the GENIUS Act, which U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign into law by July 18, CBS News reported the same day.

U.S.: 'Crypto Week' Wraps Up With One Major Legislative Victory, Other Bills Go to Senate

The British government sanctioned 18 people across three units of Russia's GRU military intelligence agency who are accused of conducting cyber and hybrid warfare operations targeting the United Kingdom and Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on July 18.

U.K., Russia: British Government Sanctions Russian Spies Over Hybrid Warfare

Senegal

France completed the handover of its two remaining military facilities in Senegal to Senegalese authorities, Le Monde reported on July 17.

Senegal: France Completes Handover of Military Facilities 

EU member states approved the bloc's 18th sanctions package against Russia, introducing a revised dynamic oil price cap, expanded banking restrictions, sanctions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines and curbs on imports of oil products refined from Russian crude, Reuters reported on July 17.

EU, Russia: EU Approves 18th Sanctions Package Against Russia

U.S. bank Wells Fargo temporarily suspended all corporate travel to China after a company executive was hit with an exit ban, Reuters reported on July 18.

China, U.S.: Wells Fargo Suspends China Travel After Executive Hit With Exit Ban

The European Union is offering the United States a tit-for-tat tariff reduction on vehicles that would see the United States reduce its 25% tariff on European cars to 17.5% in exchange for the European Union reducing its tariffs on U.S. cars to 0%, the Financial Times reported on July 17.

U.S., EU: Brussels To Propose Tit-for-Tat Tariff Reduction on Auto Sector

Brazil

Brazil's Supreme Court required former President Jair Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor and prohibited him from using social media, speaking to other individuals under investigation for an alleged 2022 coup plot, contacting diplomats, and going near embassies, g1 reported on July 18.

Brazil, U.S.: Restrictions on Bolsonaro To Further Sour U.S.-Brazil Relations, Fuel Unrest Risks

Georgia

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze dismissed a request by the European Union to implement institutional reforms and said that "If it comes down to peace and stability or visa-free travel [with the EU], we will certainly prioritize peace and stability," JAMnews reported on July 17.

Georgia: Government Rejects EU Calls for Institutional Reforms, Accuses Brussels of Blackmail

The Federal Communications Commission plans to ban undersea telecommunication cables containing Chinese technology or equipment from connecting to the United States, according to a statement issued on July 16.

U.S.: FCC Proposes Ban of Chinese Equipment in Undersea Cables

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

U.S. Trade Deal Is a Mixed Victory for Japan, a Template for Regional Partners

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Sitrep Data

U.S.: 'Crypto Week' Wraps Up With One Major Legislative Victory, Other Bills Go to Senate

U.K., Russia: British Government Sanctions Russian Spies Over Hybrid Warfare

Senegal: France Completes Handover of Military Facilities

EU, Russia: EU Approves 18th Sanctions Package Against Russia

China, U.S.: Wells Fargo Suspends China Travel After Executive Hit With Exit Ban

U.S., EU: Brussels To Propose Tit-for-Tat Tariff Reduction on Auto Sector

Brazil, U.S.: Restrictions on Bolsonaro To Further Sour U.S.-Brazil Relations, Fuel Unrest Risks

Georgia: Government Rejects EU Calls for Institutional Reforms, Accuses Brussels of Blackmail

U.S.: FCC Proposes Ban of Chinese Equipment in Undersea Cables

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