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Essential Geopolitics: Brazil's Evolving Political Climate Amid Bolsonaro's House Arrest and Trump's Tariffs

Cyber

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

The jihadist group Islamic State seized swaths of territory in Iraq and neighboring Syria in the first half of 2014, including the city of Mosul in June 2014. The U.S.-led coalition was established to combat the Islamic State in September 2014. Around the same time, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, an umbrella organization of dozens of militias, many pro-Iranian, was also established to combat the Islamic State. At its peak in late 2014, the Islamic State held around 40% of Iraqi territory. However, by March 2018, the U.S.-led coalition announced that it had recaptured 98% of Islamic State-held territory in Iraq. 


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Global Elections

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On Geopolitics

How Kazakhstan's Proposed Reforms Will Impact the Question of Succession


Column: How Kazakhstan's Proposed Reforms Will Impact the Question of Succession

Russia's onerous restrictions and surveillance of online platforms and encrypted messaging services will elevate already high cybersecurity threats, including data compromise and digital monitoring, for any Western companies that resume business operations in the country.

Cyber Threats to Western Companies Seeking To Return to Russia

The geopolitical landscape of 2025 is marked by intensifying conflicts, realignments of alliances, and emerging threats that challenge the existing global order. From the Middle East to Eastern Europe and beyond, nations are navigating a complex web of strategic decisions that could redefine international relations in the years to come.

Assessment: Shifting Alliances and Escalating Tensions: A Snapshot of Global Geopolitical Risks in 2025

Brazil

United States

Politics

How will these recent developments influence the 2026 general election?

Drupal Podcast: Essential Geopolitics: Brazil's Evolving Political Climate Amid Bolsonaro's House Arrest and Trump's Tariffs

U.S.: Prominent Conservative Activist Fatally Shot at Utah Student Event

As Russian forces press their summer offensive on the ground in Ukraine, a hybrid conflict is taking place in Europe, where the Kremlin has been sponsoring a campaign of physical sabotage, personal intimidation and myriad cyber operations designed to impose costs and weaken support for Ukraine.



Russian Physical Sabotage and Cyber Threats in Europe

Annual

Forecasts

In Nepal, violent unrest and political uncertainty will likely persist for at least the coming days, while the crisis will probably deepen the country's years-long political instability and sustain the possibility of further eruptions of unrest in the future. On Sept. 9, Nepalese Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned amid intensifying violent protests that erupted on Sept. 8, triggered by authorities' ban on some two dozen social media platforms and anger over corruption. Much of the unrest has remained concentrated in the capital Kathmandu, where demonstrators set fire to several Nepalese officials' homes and to the parliament building. Authorities have also shuttered Tribhuvan International Airport, the country's main international airport. Protesters, who have referred to themselves as Gen Z, have accused authorities of imposing the social media ban to limit free speech and censor criticism, and they have highlighted the move as part of a broader, flawed political system that was corrupt and benefited so-called "Nepo Kids" — particularly the wealthy children of political elites — while remaining unresponsive to the needs of most Nepalese. Authorities had seemingly yet to restore order late Sept. 9, with aggrieved demonstrators, some of whom were armed, reportedly roaming the capital's streets.

Annual forecast - sectioned content - What Is the Future of Europe's Defense Architecture Through 2032?

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption.

In Nepal, violent unrest and political uncertainty will likely persist for at least the coming days, while the crisis will probably deepen the country's years-long political instability and sustain the possibility of further eruptions of unrest in the future. 

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

Ethiopia

Israel

Japan

France

United Kingdom

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou leaves after the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Aug. 27, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: France's Bayrou Faces a Confidence Vote, Ethiopia Inaugurates Its Mega-Dam

Latest

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

China

Russia

India

Participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 pose for photos in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S. trade uncertainty will help China deepen trade ties with its Central Asian neighbors and infrastructure ties with Russia, but its relations with India will remain inhibited by border disputes and differing defense priorities.

China Positions Itself as Growth Catalyst for Central Asia at SCO Summit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a meeting on May 14, 2015, in Xian, China. 

While Trump-era tariff pressures offer a new economic incentive for cooperation, Beijing and New Delhi are unlikely to fully normalize ties due to enduring strategic and security concerns.

Despite Modest Improvement, India-China Relations Face Enduring Challenges

The outside of the Federal Reserve Board building is seen in Washington, D.C.

If upheld, Trump's unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could dent the U.S. central bank's credibility and fuel market volatility.

The Implications of Trump's Latest Attack on Fed Independence

Bangladesh

Supporters of Bangladesh's Jamaat-e-Islami party wave the national flag in Dhaka during a rally held to call for the introduction of a proportional representation system in the country's forthcoming general election on July 19, 2025. 

While delays remain possible, the interim government will likely hold elections in February 2026 as promised, paving the way for a functioning parliament and the implementation of key reforms.

A Set Election Date Eases Political Uncertainty in Bangladesh

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Mining and Industry Minister Bandar Al-Khorayef addresses the Future Mineral Forum in Riyadh on Jan. 10, 2024. 

Despite recent deals, the kingdom's mining sector will struggle to secure the level of investment needed to accomplish its Vision 2030 goals, though certain minerals adjacent to oil production, like lithium, are poised for greater growth.

The Challenges and Opportunities in Saudi Arabia's Mining Sector

Workers at the Samsung plant in Sriperumbudur, India, stage a protest to demand higher wages and recognition of their union on Sept. 11, 2024. 

The labor reforms, aimed at streamlining regulations and attracting investment, face significant delays and uneven implementation due to political resistance, trade union opposition and state-level administrative challenges.

India's Labor Codes: Challenges to Nationwide Adoption

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the "Winning the AI Race" summit hosted by All‑In Podcast and Hill & Valley Forum at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium on July 23, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Relaxed U.S. export controls on key semiconductors will enable Chinese companies to accelerate their advancement of AI-focused chips.

How U.S. Export Concessions Could Boost China's AI Ambitions

U.S.-China Relations

Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive at a press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki, Finland.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The meeting risks sidelining Ukraine and enabling Russia to delay sanctions, consolidate battlefield gains, and advance its strategic interests through a U.S.-Russia peace framework.

What To Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

South Sudan

Chad

Somalia

Sudan

Uganda

United Arab Emirates

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. 

As Putin and Trump prepare to meet in Alaska, the main risk for Ukraine is a U.S.-Russia deal that cements major territorial losses while offering weak security guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine

On Security

Mexico

DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.

Despite the political and diplomatic risks, Trump is more likely than not to launch some direct operations against Mexican cartels before he leaves office, potentially ranging from light and sporadic U.S. drone strikes to more extensive ground operations.

The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels

Europe

Lithuania

Germany

Finland

Latvia

Denmark

Estonia

Sweden

Poland

Norway

Belarus

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

Science & Technology

U.S., Europe: Trump Proposes U.S.-Europe Tariffs on China, Brussels Will Reject It

Cambodia

Thailand

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (center) speaks during a press conference next to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet (left) and Thailand's acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai (right) in Putrajaya, Malaysia, on July 28, 2025. 

While the truce may hold in the short to medium term, unresolved disputes and political pressures sustain the risk of future clashes, with the next round likely to be even deadlier.

Gauging the Stability of the Thailand-Cambodia Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to sign the GENIUS Act in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 18, 2025. 

The United States has passed its first major federal cryptocurrency law, boosting institutional interest, but broader public adoption remains constrained by regulatory gaps and ongoing risks.

Cryptocurrency Legislation Advances, Sets New Course for U.S. Cryptocurrency Landscape

Syria

Turkey

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Bahrain

Iran

Oman

Qatar

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Iraq

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Renew Commitment to Starting CPEC's Next Phase

Sit rep - Renew Commitment to Starting CPEC's Next Phase

Americas

Guyana

Guyanese President Irfaan Ali was reelected for a second five-year term, with his People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) winning more than twice as many votes as the second-placed party in the country's general election, Reuters reported on Sept. 3.


Guyana: President Ali Wins Reelection on Back of Oil Boom

Taiwan

U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of adjusted tariffs on dozens of countries late on July 31, prior to an Aug. 1 tariff deadline, included dropping the tariff on Taiwan from a threatened 32% rate to 20%, The South China Morning Post reported on Aug. 1.

Taiwan, U.S.: Taiwan Says U.S. 20% Tariff Is 'Provisional,' Still Seeking Deal

Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order on July 31 raising tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25%, with tariffs taking effect Aug. 1, according to a White House fact sheet published on July 31.

U.S., Canada: U.S. Raises Tariffs on Canadian Goods to 35%

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The Trump administration announced new tariffs for Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan that will take effect on Aug. 7, Reuters reported on Aug. 1.

Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan: Trump Announces Reduced Tariff Rates

Malaysia

The United States will impose a 19% tariff rate on Malaysia (down from the threatened 25%), Thailand and Cambodia (both down from 36%) on Aug. 7, Channel News Asia reported on Aug. 1.

Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia: Countries All Receive 19% U.S. Tariff Rate

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The governments of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda held the first meeting of the Joint Oversight Committee laid out in their June 27 peace agreement, Reuters reported on July 31.

Congo, Rwanda: Governments Hold First Meeting of Joint Oversight Committee 

Tanzania

Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan on July 30 inaugurated the country's first uranium processing pilot plant at the Mkuju River uranium project in Namtumbo district, Ruvuma region, The Chanzo reported on July 31.

Tanzania, Russia: Governments Launch $1.2B Uranium Project in Southern Tanzania

South Africa

The United States is planning to impose 30% “reciprocal” tariffs on South Africa from Aug. 7 following Pretoria’s failure to reach a trade deal by Aug. 1, Reuters reported on Aug. 1.

South Africa: Trump Administration To Slap 30% Tariffs on South African Exports

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

French Debt Soars As Parliament Unlikely To Reach Fiscal Consolidation

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Europe: Trump Proposes U.S.-Europe Tariffs on China, Brussels Will Reject It

Sit rep - Renew Commitment to Starting CPEC's Next Phase

Guyana: President Ali Wins Reelection on Back of Oil Boom

Taiwan, U.S.: Taiwan Says U.S. 20% Tariff Is 'Provisional,' Still Seeking Deal

U.S., Canada: U.S. Raises Tariffs on Canadian Goods to 35%

Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan: Trump Announces Reduced Tariff Rates

Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia: Countries All Receive 19% U.S. Tariff Rate

Congo, Rwanda: Governments Hold First Meeting of Joint Oversight Committee

Tanzania, Russia: Governments Launch $1.2B Uranium Project in Southern Tanzania

South Africa: Trump Administration To Slap 30% Tariffs on South African Exports

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